Trumpov hitrojezični populizem ima hudo napako – svojih napovedi in groženj ne more uresničiti. To se najbolj očitno kaže v njegovi  zunanji politiki – na fronti carin proti celemu svetu, poskusu zaustavitve vojne v Ukrajini in Gazi. Povsod si je (samo)zadal roke za rešitve, ki jih ne more uresničiti, zato jih podaljšuje ali ignorira. Najbolj aktualen je njegov zaplet z Rusijo glede prekinitve ognja in mirovnega sporazuma v Ukrajini. Prvotni iz prsta izsesani ultimat (50 dni za dosego prekinitve ognja) je prejšnji teden v trenutku frustracije še zaostril na zgolj 10-12 dni. Pri čemer sta njegov ultimat Rusiji, da bo sicer doživela nove ameriške sankcije, in grožnja državam, ki trgujejo z Rusijo, s sekundarnimi carinami, izvenela kot piarovski krik iz obupa. Rusije Trump ne more sankcionirati bolj, kot jo že, ker je nima več s čim. Trgovina med državama je nizka, pri čemer pa ZDA še vedno kupujejo nekatere za ZDA kritično pomembne ruske proizvode: umetna gnojila in procesiran uran za jedrsko gorivo.

Prav tako pa Trump ne more prisiliti Kitajske in indije, da prenehata kupovati rusko nafto (in plin). Vodstvi obeh držav sta na to grožnjo takoj odgovorili, da je zanju povsem nesprejemljiva in da bosta ravnali v skladu s vojimi nacionalnimi strateškimi interesi. Indijski predsednik vlade se je v odzivu na Trumpove grožnje takoj najavil na obisk pri predsedniku Xiju konec avgusta in včeraj opravil pogovor z ruskim predsednikom Putinom ter ga povabil na uradni obisk. Trumpu je s svojim hitrojezičnim opletanjem kvečjemu uspelo še bolj povezati Rusijo, Kitajsko in Indijo in jih poenotiti v bloku proti ZDA. Te tri države (sicer članice BRICS) predstavljajo skupaj okrog 3 milijarde ljudi , kar je skoraj 8,8‑krat več kot prebivalstvo ZDA, in njihov skupen BDP po PPP znaša približno 56 bilijonov dolarjev, kar je 2,2‑krat več kot BDP ZDA.

Medklic: Ob tem ne moremo požreti frustracije zaradi izdajalskega ravnanja von der Leynove, ki je namesto pokončne drže in enotnega nastopa z drugimi državami, ki jih izsiljuje Trump, sramotno kapitulirala pred njim. Dala mu je več, kot je od nje zahteval in v zameno ni dobila nič.

Trump je zato v obupu, da ne bi vsem na očeh izpadel kot, no ja, blefer, poslal svojega odposlanca Witkoffa v Moskvo, s čimer je izničil svoj ultimat. Witkoff je Putinu očitno predal sprejemljivo Trumpovo ponudbo, ki bi lahko zadostila Putinovim pogojem za konec vojne, sicer Putin ne bi pristal na srečanje s Trumpom. Toda problem bo (je že) nastal z uskladitvijo teksta pogojev za konec vojne v Ukrajini, saj mora Trump za ta tekst dobiti podporo v svoji stranki, med evropskimi državami in v ukrajini (Zelenski je sicer zelo očitno na ameriškem odstrelu in utegne pristati na vse, problem pa so neonacistične strukture v vladi in vojski, ki v ozadju vodijo igro). Ti trije dejavniki so do sedaj združno zrušili vse Trumpove mirovne pobude. Srečanje med Trumpom in Putinom, če bo do njega zaradi zgornjih razlogov sploh prišlo, se – bolj kot ne – utegne izroditi v piarovski dizaster za Trumpa, če s Putinom ne bosta povsem uskladila teksta. Kar je težko verjetno. Vendar pustimo se presenetiti.

Gre za velik gambling Trumpa, kajti če Trump in Putin ne bosta uskladila teksta, je Trumpov hitrojezični populizem v še večjih težavah. S tem pa tudi njegov problem na domači fronti in v lastni stranki.

Spodaj je nekaj odstavkov iz The Atlantic o Trumpovi nemoči glede Rusije (splača pa se prebrati preostali del komentarja glede Trumpovih težav doma):

Trump’s appetite for confrontation is being tested again this week, with the arrival of two of the most important self-imposed deadlines of his second term, related to the tariffs and the conflict in Ukraine. Both present fraught decisions for Trump, and they come at a time when he faces a confluence of crises. A president who, less than a year ago, staged a historic political comeback and moved to quickly conquer Washington and the world now confronts more obstacles than at any point since his inauguration. Some of his central campaign promises—that he would end the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and boost the economy—are in peril. And for the first time in his 200 days back in office, the White House has begun to worry about members of the president’s own party defying him.

Tomorrow, the clock runs out on the two-week window that Trump gave Russia to reach a cease-fire with Ukraine. The president has been upset by his inability to end the war. Without an agreement, he has said, he will impose sanctions on Russia. But doing so would represent the first time in his decade in politics that he has truly punished President Vladimir Putin.

…

The mood in the White House has darkened in the past month, as the president’s challenges have grown deeper. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has become intensely frustrating for Trump, two White House officials and a close outside adviser told me. The president had truly believed that his relationship with Putin would bring about a quick end to the conflict. But instead, Putin has taken advantage of Trump’s deference to him and has openly defied the president—“embarrassed him,” one of the officials told me—by ignoring his calls for a cease-fire and ratcheting up his strikes on Ukrainian cities. Trump has sharply criticized his Russian counterpart in recent weeks as he’s mulled what to do.

Yesterday, Trump said that his personal envoy, Steve Witkoff, had a productive meeting with Putin in Moscow, leading the U.S. president to return to his original plan to end the war: a summit. A third White House official told me that Trump has informed European leaders that he wants to meet with Putin as soon as next week in a new effort to get a cease-fire. A Kremlin spokesperson accepted the White House offer but said its details needed to be finalized. Trump also told European leaders that he would potentially have a subsequent meeting with both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, but the Kremlin did not immediately agree to that.

One of the officials told me that Trump is still considering how and whether to directly punish Putin if Moscow doesn’t hit tomorrow’s deadline. The U.S. does little trade with Russia, so direct levies would be useless, and the West Wing is divided as to the merits of slapping secondary sanctions on nations that do business with Moscow. Trump signed off on sanctioning India this week because, the official told me, he was already annoyed at the lack of progress on a trade deal with Delhi. But he is far more leery of sanctioning China—another major economic partner of Russia’s—for fear of upending ongoing trade negotiations with Beijing.

Spodaj pa je še komentar na temo tega članka. Komentator in komentar sta sicer naklonjena Rusiji in s tem pristranska, vendar pa je komentar zanimiv prav zaradi tega – ker kaže, kako v nezahodnih državah vidijo Trumpovo popolno nemoč.

“Trump is still considering whether it is worth punishing Putin directly at all if Moscow does not meet the deadline.” Just read that again. The so-called leader of the free world isn’t even sure if he should respond. That’s not strategy. That’s fear. That’s confusion. Russia stands firm, and the United States is stuck in indecision. They gave an ultimatum, and now they don’t even know what to do with it.

“The US trades little with Russia, so direct tariffs would be useless.” They admit it themselves. They have no economic grip on Russia. No tools. No leverage. All the tough talk, all the threats, and in the end, they quietly confess it’s all for show. Russia is too resilient, too independent. And they know it.

“There is no consensus in the West Wing on the advisability of imposing secondary sanctions on countries doing business with Moscow.” This is huge. Even Trump’s own inner circle is split. They don’t agree. They don’t know how to deal with a world that refuses to obey. More and more nations are working with Russia, not turning away from it. The global order is shifting, and Washington is panicking.

Trump sanctioned India. Why? Because “he was already irritated by the lack of progress in the trade agreement with Delhi.” Not because of any principle. Not because of Russia. Out of irritation. Out of personal annoyance. This is what American foreign policy has become. A mood swing. A tantrum.

But with China, it’s different. Trump is “much more cautious” because he’s worried sanctions might “hinder ongoing trade negotiations.” So he hesitates. He backs off. He shows weakness. China supports Russia. But Trump is too afraid to touch them. He knows what would happen. And so he stalls.

What does this all show? That the American empire is exhausted. The threats are empty. The influence is fading. And as the United States hesitates, Russia holds its position with calm, with strength, with confidence.

Vir: Zlati