Jeremy Rudd je tisti svetovalec boarda Federal Reserve, ki je septembra 2021, ko se je začel kuhati inflacijski šok v ZDA, objavil fenomenalno teoretično razpravo “Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)”. Priznam, da že dolgo nisem tako užival ob branju teoretične ekonomske razprave (tukaj je moj takratni zapis “Petek, ko so ubili inflacijska (racionalna) pričakovanja“). Na kratko, Rudd je zapisal, da “je uporaba inflacijskih pričakovanj za razlago opazovane inflacijske dinamike nepotrebna in nesmiselna“. Oziroma da utemeljevanje ukrepanja monetarne politike glede inflacije na podlagi inflacijskih pričakovanj neustrezno, saj sloni na izjemno trhlih teoretičnih temeljih in empirično ni podprto, in “bi njegovo nekritično spoštovanje zlahka povzročilo resne napake politike.”

No, zdaj je tik pred objavo Ruddova knjiga “A Practical Guide to Macroeconomics“, ki napoveduje razbiti nekaj mitov v ekonomiji, predvsem pa pokazati, da je velika večina teoretičnih in empiričnih raziskav v makroekonomiji neuporabna pri snovanju makroekonomskih politik. Ker pač temeljijo na domišljijski predpostavkah o domišljijskem svetu, ki obstaja samo v glavah ene skupine ekonomistov, ki je odcepljena od kakršnihkoli značilnosti realnega sveta. Najbrž ne obstaja nič bolj nerealističnega in neuporabnega, kot so makroekonomske mainstream teoretske razprave in empirične študije.

Evo, kaj obljublja knjiga:

There is an uncomfortably large gulf between academic research and what policy economists use to understand the economy. A Practical Guide to Macroeconomics shows how economists at policy institutions approach important real-world questions and explains why existing academic work – theoretical and empirical – has little to offer them. It argues that this disconnect between theory and practice is problematic for policymaking and the economics profession and looks at what’s needed to make academic research more relevant for policy. The book also covers topics related to economic measurement and provides a compact overview of US macroeconomic statistics that will help researchers use these data in a better-informed way.

• Provides a compact overview of topics related to economic measurement
• Identifies a number of deficiencies in conventional theoretical and empirical approaches that are currently used to describe macroeconomic phenomena
• Encourages economists to produce research that moves away from these conventional—but inappropriate—ways of analyzing key questions in macroeconomics
• Helps users of US macroeconomic data avoid a number of pitfalls associated with using these data in their empirical work

Reviews & endorsements

‘In 2021, when inflation surged in the United States, deep divisions arose among macroeconomists about how the Federal Reserve should respond. Macroeconomic theory and the workhorse models needed to be better equipped to recognize the realities of the pandemic, and it showed. Jeremy Rudd brilliantly lays out the roots of the problem. Over time, academic theory has become increasingly disconnected from the real world and the needs of policymakers. His book brings us back to foundational questions. Without a deep and humble introspection, we will be no better prepared for the next crisis. In his book, Rudd sets us on the path to do just that.’ Claudia Sahm, founder of Sahm Consulting and former Federal Reserve economist

‘Jeremy Rudd’s remarkable book is far more than a ‘practical guide.’ His unique and impressive blend of erudition, insight, and chutzpah ensures that any economist who delves into this book will find both reasons to scowl and reasons to smile as Rudd deftly picks modern macro apart. This book earns a prominent place on my bookshelf.’ Alan S. Blinder, Gordon S. Rentschler Memorial Professor of Economics and Public Affairs, Princeton University

Vir: Cambridge University Press