Spodnja slika je iz zadnjega poročila Mednarodne agencije za energijo (IEA). Nekateri, predvsem v Nemčiji, so se v začetku leta hvalili, kako je državam EU uspelo lani (2022) zmanjšati porabo energije (elektrike in zemeljskega plina). Pozabili pa so povedati ceno tega zmanjšanja. Spodnja slika kaže, da smo lani v EU sicer zmanjšali agregatnop porabo električne energije iz 2,551 na 2,440 TWh. Toda cena za to je, da smo se manj greli (31 TWh) in da je energetsko intenzivna industrija zmanjšala proizvodnjo – aluminij za 12%, jeklo za 10%, papirna za 6%, kemična pa za 5%.

Le kako si kdo pri zdravi pameti predstavlja konkurenčnost domače industrije ob visokih cenah plina in astronomskih cenah električne energije iz sonca in vetra (ko upoštevamo njune skrite, sistemske stroške)? Le kako si kdo med politiki v EU predstavlja “odklop” (zmanjšanje tveganj) od Kitajske ob istočasnem zmanjšanju domače proizvodnje kritičnih materialov? Le kako si kdo predstavlja, da bomo v Evropi brez lastne proizvodnje kritičnih materialov in ob visokih cenah energije proizvajali denimo sončne panele, baterije, čipe…? Je morda kdo vsaj za hip pomislil, da nekaj na področju energetskega prehoda v kvazi-zeleno delamo katastrofalno narobe?

Polkovnik Jacques Baud je delal za švicarsko strateško varnostno službo, bil je vodja misij Združenih narodov in bil je član predstavništva Nata, ki je po letu 2014 spremljalo situacijo v Ukrajini. Spodaj je njegova kronološka dokumentacija vzrokov za vojno v Ukrajini (od referendumov o avtonomiji večinsko rusko govorečih regij, napadov ukrajinske vojske na te regije, nespoštovanja obeh sporazumov iz Minska in izigravanja Rusije, ki je zahtevala spoštovanje obeh sporazumov), ki jo je napisal že lani marca, en mesec po začetku vojne. In kot boste videli, je ta resnica dokaj neprijetna tako za ukrajinske oblasti kot za zahodne države, ki so ukrajinske oblasti podpirale pri zatiranju elementarnih človekovih pravic ruske manjšine.

Na žalost resnica in dejstva danes skorajda nikogar več ne zanimajo, pač pa se posamezniki povsem prepustijo enostranski propagandi, servirani iz medijev. No, resnica in dejstva so vseeno pomembna, če hočemo razumeti, zakaj je prišlo do vojne in kaj morajo vsebovati dolgoročne rešitve za mir na tem območju.

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Part One: The Road To War

For years, from Mali to Afghanistan, I have worked for peace and risked my life for it. It is therefore not a question of justifying war, but of understanding what led us to it. [….]

Let’s try to examine the roots of the [Ukrainian] conflict. It starts with those who for the last eight years have been talking about “separatists” or “independentists” from Donbass. This is a misnomer. The referendums conducted by the two self-proclaimed Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk in May 2014, were not referendums of “independence” (независимость), as some unscrupulous journalists have claimed, but referendums of “self-determination” or “autonomy” (самостоятельность). The qualifier “pro-Russian” suggests that Russia was a party to the conflict, which was not the case, and the term “Russian speakers” would have been more honest. Moreover, these referendums were conducted against the advice of Vladimir Putin.

In fact, these Republics were not seeking to separate from Ukraine, but to have a status of autonomy, guaranteeing them the use of the Russian language as an official language–because the first legislative act of the new government resulting from the American-sponsored overthrow of [the democratically-elected] President Yanukovych, was the abolition, on February 23, 2014, of the Kivalov-Kolesnichenko law of 2012 that made Russian an official language in Ukraine. A bit like if German putschists decided that French and Italian would no longer be official languages in Switzerland.

This decision caused a storm in the Russian-speaking population. The result was fierce repression against the Russian-speaking regions (Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Lugansk and Donetsk) which was carried out beginning in February 2014 and led to a militarization of the situation and some horrific massacres of the Russian population (in Odessa and Mariupol, the most notable).

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John Mearsheimer je seveda že tedaj imel prav. Zato bi mu veljalo prisluhniti, kaj meni o nadaljevanju in koncu te vojne zdaj.

O madžarskem predsedniku vlade Viktorju Orbanu si lahko mislimo, kar si hočemo – od tega, da je populist, da je nacionalist, da ni demokrat, da je ksenofob, da ima ekpanzionistične težnje itd. Vendar pa moramo hkrati priznati, da ima glede sedanje geopolitične situacije in celotnega geopolitičnega konteksta zelo dobro razčiščene pojme. Spodaj je njegov govor na to temo na poletnem taboru. Orbanu je jasno, da v tej vojni v Ukrajini izgubljajo samo Ukrajinci in Evropa, medtem ko glavni promotor vojne ZDA žanjejo velike dobičke. Jasno mu je, da se kuha veliko neurje med dvema velesilama, ZDA in Kitajsko, kot rezultat poskušanja ZDA preprečiti Kitajski postati globalno največja gospodarska in s tem tudi politična velesila. Jasno mu je, da eskalacija napetosti med obema za prevlado lahko pomeni konec sveta in da je mirna koeksistenca med obema možna šele, ko bodo “veliki fantje priznali, da sta na nebu lahko dve sonci“. In jasno mu je, da majhne države tukaj ne igrajo nobene vloge, lahko pa izkoristijo situacijo s pragmatičnim delovanjem v korist lastnih nacionalnih interesov.

We are living through a particularly dangerous period in the history of humanity. These are years of great change. This change is affecting every corner of the globe and every country, so if we want to say something valid about Hungary, about Hungarians in the Carpathian Basin, we must first talk about the world. The essence of my message is that the balance of power in the world has shifted, and now we are suffering the serious consequences of this. Looking back, we see that for eighty years after the Second World War there was a balance of power in the world. For us Hungarians, this period consisted of two parts. There was the first forty-five years, when the Anglo-Saxons handed us over to the Soviet communists – and, incidentally, back then they were not as squeamish about the Russians as they are now. And then there has been the second period, of thirty-three years so far, when we have been able to live in freedom without military occupation, the Soviet Union and communists. Although this was a huge change over eighty years, the balance of the world was not upset, because we managed to lead the Soviet Union out of the parade of history without a war. But now China has shifted the balance of the world. This is one of the Western world’s old fears. Even Napoleon said, “Let China sleep, for when she wakes she will shake the world.” How this situation has come about is instructive.

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Domine se tudi v velikih medijih počasi, vendar vztrajno zlagajo v vzorec, ki smo ga mnogi videli in razlagali po začetku te nesmiselne vojne v Ukrajini. Odgovori na naslovna vprašanja so lepo zloženi v spodnjem zapisu, ki temelji na analizi ključnih velikih ameriških medijev v službi državne propagande.

In a new article titled “Ukraine’s Lack of Weaponry and Training Risks Stalemate in Fight With Russia,” The Wall Street Journal’s Daniel Michaels reports that western officials knew Ukrainian forces didn’t have the weapons and training necessary to succeed in their highly touted counteroffensive which was launched last month.

Michaels writes:

“When Ukraine launched its big counteroffensive this spring, Western military officials knew Kyiv didn’t have all the training or weapons — from shells to warplanes — that it needed to dislodge Russian forces. But they hoped Ukrainian courage and resourcefulness would carry the day.

“They haven’t. Deep and deadly minefields, extensive fortifications and Russian air power have combined to largely block significant advances by Ukrainian troops. Instead, the campaign risks descending into a stalemate with the potential to burn through lives and equipment without a major shift in momentum.”

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Jasmin Feratović je v odlični niti dobro razgalil zavajanje glede porabe fosilnih virov pri jedrski energiji, ki si ga je prejšnji petek v Dnevniku privoščila novinarka:

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Žiga Zaplotnik je pred dvema letoma v intervjuju za N1 dobro napovedal bodoče dogajanje zaradi globalnega segrevanja. Takrat je napovedal: Slovenijo čaka veliko več neurij z močnim vetrom in točo.

Letos od začetka marca je razvidna močna anomalija v segrevanju Atlantika in v povprečju površja vseh oceanov. Anomalija je konec junija znašala že +0.74 stopinj Celzija. Ta anomalija naj bi se prenesla v segrevanje ozračja.

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