Odgovora na to vprašanje ne vedo niti najbolje poučeni Nemci sami. Pozitivni vidik je, da je Nemčija uspela napolniti plinska skladišča do 86% (kar je nekoliko več kot prejšnja leta; vendar je bila tudi temperatura višja kot v prejšnjih letih) in da so nemška podjetja uspela letos (avtonomno zaradi visokih cen plina) znižati porabo plina med 3 in 27%. Na negativni strani pa so dejstvo, da nemška plinska skladišča zadostujejo le za 2 meseca porabe in dve negotovosti – da nihče ne ve, kako hladna bo ta zima in da nihče ne ve, koliko plina bo Nemčija lahko dobivala iz drugih virov.

Kaj se bo zgodilo v Nemčiji, ko se (oktobra) začne kurilna sezona, v kateri se poraba plina tipično najmanj podvoji (poveča se se med 100 in 140% v dveh najhladnejših mesecih)? Na začetku se seveda ne bo zgodilo nič, v prvih dveh mesecih je povečano porabo plina mogoče pokriti iz skladišč. Problem pa nastopi, če so tekoči prilivi na nižji ravni, kot so bili v prejšnjih mesecih, in ne zadostujejo niti za pokritje tipične osnovne porabe, niti za dopolnjenje skladišč.

Nato pa je vse odvisno od tega, kako hladna bosta december in januar (decembra je poraba plina za 100 do 120% višja kot poleti, januarja pa običajno za 140% višja) in koliko plina bo Nemčija lahko dobila iz drugih virov (Norveška, Nizozemska, LNG). Kot lahko vidite na spodnji sliki, pa je poraba močno odvisna od zimskih temperatur. Ker je bila letošnja zima precej toplejša, je bila tudi poraba plina za 10 do 15% nižja kot v 2021. Torej, nemški mrk glede ogrevanja in električne energije bo v precejšnji meri odvisen od narave.

Če narava letošnjo zimo Nemčiji ne bo naklonjena, je delni energetski mrk realistična opcija v obdobju med januarjem in marcem. Če bo prišlo do hudega pomanjkanja plina, pridejo na vrsto redukcije in prvi na udaru bodo seveda industrijski odjemalci, medtem ko so gospodinjstva in kritična infrastruktura (bolnišnice itd.) zaščiteni in imajo prednost pri odjemu plina. Podobno kot v drugih državah, bo v tem primeru pristojna agencija (v Nemčiji agencija za omrežja) na podlagi prednostne liste sprejela odločitev o tem, katere tovarne bodo imele prednost, če bodo razmere postale hude. Merila za to odločitev je že oblikovala Evropska komisija, merila pa vključujejo pomen podjetja za splošno blaginjo države in proizvodne oskrbovalne verige, pričakovano gospodarsko in okoljsko škodo, ki bi zaradi prekinitve dobav plina nastala, ter stroške in čas, ki bi ga dano podjetje potrebovalo za ponovni zagon proizvodnje.

Predpostavljam, da ima nemška vlada (tako kot jih ima slovenska) narejene ocene, kakšna škoda bi nastala v primeru zaprtja delov gospodarstva za en ali več mesecev.

Spodaj je nekaj odstavkov iz članka v Spieglu, ki govori predvsem o pozitivnem vidiku nemške pripravljenosti na zimo brez ruskega plina.

In recent months, Germany has taken steps toward breaking its addiction to Russian natural gas, in part thanks to Gazprom’s decision to limit supplies. Indeed, for several weeks prior to suspending deliveries completely, the state-owned company was only delivering a fifth of the normal amount through the Baltic Sea pipeline – and more recently, just a tenth of Germany’s normal imports were arriving.

Can Germany survive the winter without Russian natural gas?

That question can’t yet be conclusively answered, but the situation is far better now than just a few months ago. German natural gas storage facilities are filled to 86 percent capacity, a level that initial government plans had first foreseen for October.

On behalf of the Federal Network Agency, Trading Hub Europe a natural gas network cooperation founded in Germany in 2021, has purchased several billion cubic meters of natural gas in recent months. Consumers will face significant energy bills as a result, but supply security is at least safe for now.

The country’s current reserves of 20 billion cubic meters would be sufficient for two winter months. But Germany will continue to receive natural gas deliveries – either through pipelines from Norway or in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Germany’s first two floating LNG terminals in Wilhelmshaven and Brunsbüttel are scheduled to begin operations toward the end of this year or early 2023.

Whether it will ultimately be sufficient depends on several factors. How cold will the winter be? How much natural gas will be delivered by other countries? How much natural gas will be necessary for electricity generation? Should the situation become concerning in these areas, then a fourth question will become of particular importance: To what degree will industry and private consumers be able to reduce consumption?

Have higher prices already resulted in lower natural gas consumption in Germany?

In the most energy-intensive industries, the spiraling prices have had their effect. Germany’s largest industrial gas consumers used almost 19 percent less gas in the last full week of August than the average seen in the same time period last year, according to the Federal Network Agency. The agency says that weekly reductions since May have been between 3 and 27 percent.

…

The government and the Federal Network Agency are proud of having boosted deliveries from Norway and the Netherlands and of the amount of natural gas they have managed to purchase on the international market. The fact that the country’s storage facilities are close to capacity is also a source of pride.

“We even managed to stockpile when deliveries from Nord Stream 1 were completely suspended due to alleged maintenance,” says an official at the Federal Network Agency. That will provide a vital buffer for the winter.

Just as important, though, will be uninterrupted deliveries from Norway and the Netherlands. Significant technical difficulties would be extremely difficult to overcome.

Habeck has said over and over again that one decisive factor will be a 20 percent reduction in natural gas consumption. The painfully high gas prices which have heaped political pressure on the government could ultimately be a key factor in achieving that reduction: Both industrial operations and private consumers are likely to cut natural gas usage in response.

Vir: Der Spiegel