Down the Jackson Hole

Na kratko, šef Feda Jerome Powell je na tradicionalni konferenci centralnih bančnikov v Jackson Holeu povedal, da bo ne glede na recesijo, v kateri (ali na robe katere) je ameriško gospodarstvo, Fed nadaljeval s politiko dvigovanja obrestnih mer, dokler ne “ubijejo zveri” (inflacije). In da bo to prineslo bolečino za gospodarstvo in prebivalce.

“While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation.”

Torej nekdanja govorica glede možnosti soft-landinga je pozabljena, čaka samo še hard-landing zaradi uporabe napalm metode zniževanja inflacije (kot v času Paula Volckerja).

Sicer pa priporočam, da si ogledate prezentaciji Gite Gopinath (glavna ekonomistka IMF) in Jasona Furmana (nekdanji šef Svet ekonomskih svetovalcev Obame). Nekaj zanimivih novih poant sta pokazala.

Michael Roberts Blog

Jay Powell, the chair of the US Federal Reserve, made a keynote speech at the annual summer symposium of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA.  This was closely watched by financial investors and economists to see if Powell was going to support the strategy of a ‘Fed pivot’ on interest-rate policy.  The pivot is supposed to be a softening on the current aggressive hiking of the Fed’s policy rate. The pivot would keep interest rates from rising too much and thus sustain the stock market and the economy.  After all, the US year on year inflation rate had subsided a little in August from a high of 9.1% to 8.5%; and real GDP was again confirmed in decline in the first half of 2022, while consumer spending has been falling back.  So the signs of recession have increased, if the US is not already there.

US CPI inflation (yoy…

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