Is China headed for a crash?

Eno izmed dveh ključnih sporočil spodnjega komentarja, kot je pravilno opozoril Marko, je dejstvo, da Kitajska ne more zapasti v finančno krizo zahodnega tipa. Zaradi sistemskih razlogov, ker pač država kontrolira vse – centralno banko, največje poslovne banke, slabe banke in lokalne skupnosti. Z dobrim makro menedžmentom jim lahko odredi, kaj morajo narediti, da ne pride do krize. Kar je v sistemu z zasevnim lastništvom in decentraliziranimi subjekti izjemno težko. Ta odstavek je ključen:

There is not going to be a financial crash in China. That’s because the government controls the financial levers of power: the central bank, the big four state-owned commercial banks which are the largest banks in the world, and the so-called ‘bad banks’, which absorb bad loans, big asset managers, most of the largest companies. The government can order the big four banks to exchange defaulted loans for equity stakes and forget them. It can tell the central bank, the People’s Bank of China, to do whatever it takes. It can tell state-owned asset managers and pension funds to buy shares and bonds to prop up prices and to fund companies. It can tell the state bad banks to buy bad debt from commercial banks. It can get local governments to take up the property projects to completion. So a financial crisis is ruled out because the state controls the banking system.

Kar a seveda ne pomeni, da se Kitajska ne bliža težavam zaradi vse težjega obvladovanja decentraliziranih  poslovnih subjektov, ki maksimirajo zgolj svoje dobičke.

Michael Roberts Blog

Once again, Western ‘experts’ are predicting a financial crash in China.  “China is flailing”, says one commentator; another says “a debt bomb is about to explode”.  These would-be Cassandras reckon China’s demise will be driven by the bursting of the property bubble, excessive debt and the grinding down of the economy due to the government’s “terrible” ‘zero-COVID’ policy that keeps parts of the country in permanent lockdowns.  And then of course, there are the growing restrictions on China’s exports and its investments abroad, imposed by the US and supposedly backed by its allies in Asia.

How much truth is there in this latest batch of critiques on China’s economic progress?  The property crisis has reached dangerous levels.  Last year, Evergrande, China’s second-largest private property developer was close to bankruptcy.  The Evergrande property model is essentially a Ponzi scheme, where the company collects cash from the pre-sale of an…

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One response

  1. Dober Robertsov članek. Mogoče bi Jože moral povzeti še tale del:

    “There is not going to be a financial crash in China. That’s because the government controls the financial levers of power: the central bank, the big four state-owned commercial banks which are the largest banks in the world, and the so-called ‘bad banks’, which absorb bad loans, big asset managers, most of the largest companies. The government can order the big four banks to exchange defaulted loans for equity stakes and forget them. It can tell the central bank, the People’s Bank of China, to do whatever it takes. It can tell state-owned asset managers and pension funds to buy shares and bonds to prop up prices and to fund companies. It can tell the state bad banks to buy bad debt from commercial banks. It can get local governments to take up the property projects to completion. So a financial crisis is ruled out because the state controls the banking system.”

    AMEN!

    Mi smo na to lekcijo pozabili ko smo brezglavo privatizirali bančni sektor.(In pri tem pozabili, da je bil ključni element realtivno večjega rating-a slovenskih bank predvsem državno lastništvo kot stabilizacijski faktor)

    Sicer pa je napovedovanje kitajske zloma že kar rdeča nit zadnjih desetletij. Moja kolekcija:

    1990. The Economist. China’s economy has come to a halt.

    1996. The Economist. China’s economy will face a hard landing

    1998. The Economist: China’s economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth.

    1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy.

    2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin.

    2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China.

    2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing

    2003. KWR International: How to find a soft landing if China..

    2004. The Economist: The great fall of China?

    2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China

    2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing?

    2007. TIME: Is China’s Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing?

    2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China?

    2009. Fortune: China’s hard landing. China must find a way to recover.

    2010: Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China.

    2011: Business Insider: A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think

    2012: American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing

    2013: Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China

    2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China.

    2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing ….

    2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China

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