Janet Yellen, nova finančna ministrica v Bidenovi administraciji (prej dolgo časa v Boardu Fed, en mandat predsednica Fed, sicer pa žena nobelovca za ekonomijo Georga Ackerlofa) se je morala hitro odzvati na vprašanja glede “zastrašujočega povečanega” javnega dolga ZDA v času pandemije ter načrtovanega Bidenovega stimulus programa v višini 1,900 milijard dolarjev. Yellenova je seveda povedala, da visoki dolgovi seveda niso v redu, …vendar pa so, v skladu s tradicionalno makroekonomijo, pomembni stroški servisiranja dolga.

In če so obrestne mere nizke oziroma izjemno nizke, potem je problem servisiranja visokega dolga manj pomemben. Danes ZDA plačujejo enak delež BDP za servisiranje dolga kot leta 2008, čeprav se je delež dolga v BDP podvojil. Yellenova pravi, da se je namesto na dolg treba fokusirati na stroške servisiranja dolga in donos, ki ga bo ta dolg ustvaril (torej v skladu z makroekonomsko enačbo, da se dolg glede na BDP zmanjšuje, dokler je gospodarska rast višja od obresti (g > r)) in da je zdaj čas, da gre ameriška vlada “Big” v javne naložbe.

Vir: Reuters

Her more extensive comments defending President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus spending plan, however, reflected a steady shift in economists’ thinking about the mountains of government debt across the developed world that has been underway for a decade and has roots in the near collapse of the euro zone.

Forget about the amount being borrowed, Yellen, a former Federal Reserve chair, told members of the Senate Finance Committee. Focus instead on the interest rate being paid and the returns it will generate, an approach that argues the country’s future economic potential can support more borrowing today and makes the roughly $26.9 trillion in U.S. IOUs seem less formidable.

 “The interest burden of the debt as a share of (gross domestic product) is no higher now than it was before the financial crisis in 2008, in spite of the fact that our debt has escalated,” Yellen said. “To avoid doing what we need to do now to address the pandemic and the economic damage that it is causing would likely leave us in a worse place … than taking the steps that are necessary and doing that through deficit finance.”

…

After extensive research, Olivier Blanchard, then the IMF’s chief economist, eventually concluded government spending can have outsized benefits, particularly in moments of crisis when overall demand for goods and services is weak – as is the case now.

Fast forward a few years. Previously unorthodox ideas, such as Modern Monetary Theory, that see a broader, stabilizing role for government spending began getting more attention, and mainstream economists began to rethink their views about debt in more fundamental ways.

Vir: Reuters