Nassim Taleb in kolegi imajo v zadnjem članku zelo dober point glede skepse o relevantnosti napovedi modelov, da je segrevanje planeta posledica človeških aktivnosti. Pravijo preprosto: vprašati se moramo, kakšne bi bile pravilne politike v sedanji situaciji, če ne bi imeli nobenih modelskih napovedi. Iz tega sledi, da tudi če modeli, ki jih uporabljajo klimatologi, ne bi bili precizni, so tveganja nadaljevanja onesnaževanja za naš planet prevelika. Preprosto ne moremo nadaljevati s tem tempom onesnaževanja planeta, če želimo živeti vsaj v znosnem, če ne že lepem okolju.
The policy debate with respect to anthropogenic climate-change typically revolves around the accuracy of models. Those who contend that models make accurate predictions argue for specific policies to stem the foreseen damaging effects; those who doubt their accuracy cite a lack of reliable evidence of harm to warrant policy action.
These two alternatives are not exhaustive. One can sidestep the “skepticism” of those who question existing climate-models, by framing risk in the most straightforward possible terms, at the global scale. That is, we should ask “what would the correct policy be if we had no reliable models?“
We have only one planet. This fact radically constrains the kinds of risks that are appropriate to take at a large scale. Even a risk with a very low probability becomes unacceptable when it affects all of us – there is no reversing mistakes of that magnitude.
Without any precise models, we can still reason that polluting or altering our environment significantly could put us in uncharted territory, with no statistical track record and potentially large consequences.
It is at the core of both scientific decision making and ancestral wisdom to take seriously absence of evidence when the consequences of an action can be large. And it is standard textbook decision theory that a policy should depend at least as much on uncertainty concerning the adverse consequences as it does on the known effects.
Vir: Nassim N. Taleb et al, Issues in Science and Technology