Na BDP vezane obveznice – boljši način zadolževanja in zavarovanja za države

Ne vem, če se še spomnite, toda tri leta nazaj je nekdanji grški finančni minister Yanis Varoufakis kot rešitev za lajšanje finančnega bremena za Grčijo predlagal zamenjavo njenega dolga v obveznice, indeksirane na BDP. Lepota tovrstnih obveznic je v trojem. Prvič, v tem, da se država ne zadolžuje več “v tuji valuti” (z neko fiksirano obrestno mero), pač pa je donos obveznice odvisen od gospodarske rasti. Investitorji “stavijo” na rast posameznih držav in služijo z višjo rastjo. Pri Grčiji bi to pomenilo, da bi bili finančni investitorji namesto za fiskalno stiskanje bili zainteresirani za čim hitrejše gospodarsko okrevanje in bi Grčiji v ta namen ponudili tudi potrebna likvidna sredstva. Druga lepota je, da se fiskalni prostor za državno intervencijo s tem poveča, saj so investitorji zainteresirani za dobre projekte, ki jih financira država, da bi spodbudila rast. In tretjič, “baza” za finančne transakcije je tako bistveno večja kot pri ostalih finančnih instrumentih in se lahko meri v triljonih dolarjev.

No, nobelovec Robert Schiller je letos s kolegi iz IMF in Bank of England ponovno lansiral to idejo, za katero se sicer zavzema za 25 let, in prejšnji teden tudi objavil komentar v The Guardianu. Z namenom širjenja obzorij je spodaj kratek izsek iz Schillerjevega komentarja.

The time has come for national governments around the world to start issuing their debt in a new form, linked to their countries’ resources. GDP-linked bonds, with coupons and principal that rise and fall in proportion to the issuing country’s GDP, promise to solve many fundamental problems that governments face when their countries’ economies falter. And, once GDP-linked bonds are issued by a variety of countries, investors will be attracted by the prospect of high returns when some of these countries do very well.

This new debt instrument is especially exciting because of its monumental size. Although issues may start out small, they will be very important from the outset. The capitalised value of total global GDP is worth far more than the world’s stock markets and could be valued today in the quadrillions of US dollars.

An authoritative open-source online handbook just published by the Centre for Economic Policy Research, Sovereign GDP-Linked Bonds: Rationale and Design, explains how governments can do this. I co-edited the book with Jonathan D Ostry of the International Monetary Fund, and James Benford and Mark Joy of the Bank of England.

The basic idea is simple enough. Governments issue GDP-linked bonds to raise funds, just as corporations issue shares. By issuing such bonds, governments pledge to pay in proportion to the resources they have, measured by their countries’ GDP. The price-to-GDP ratio of GDP-linked bonds is essentially analogous to the price-to-earnings ratio of corporate shares. The difference is that GDP is an order of magnitude larger than corporate profits represented by the stock market.

As Sovereign GDP-Linked Bonds argues, the issuance of GDP-linked bonds will create “fiscal space” – a cushion for exigencies – for some countries. When government debt payments are fixed in currency terms, as they typically are today, countries get into trouble. In a financial crisis, they become over-leveraged, unable to borrow more, and forced to take drastic action that may impede recovery from the crisis. Taxpayers, rather than willing investors, are forced to become the final bearers of risk.

Issuing GDP-linked bonds is akin to buying insurance against economic distress. The crises that erupted in countries like Ireland and Greece a decade ago would not have been so severe had their debt been GDP-linked. And the same is true today: investors around the world will continue to accept the risk, given the unlimited upside to investing in entire economies. And they can achieve the ne plus ultra of diversification by holding GDP-linked bonds from around the world.

Vir: Robert Schiller, The Guardian

One response

  1. Kaj pa politična oz. geopolitična stran problema? V realnem svetu, ne v abstraktnih akademskih projekcijah? V realnem razmerju sil in surovi želji po moči in prevladi?

    Sliši se pa lepo, ja…

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