David Glasner o neprimernosti Johna Taylorja za predsednika Fed

Za neposvečene: John Taylor iz Stanforda je avtor t.i. Taylorjevega pravila (iz leta 1993), ki določa, kakšna naj bi bila vodilna obrestna mera centralne banke glede ne odstopanje od cilje stopnje in flacije in glede na fazo v gospodarskem ciklu. In Taylor kot inflacijski jastreb od takrat vedno teži, da bi moral Fed slediti njegovemu pravilu in da če bi to delal v obdobju 2001-2006, bi bila monetarna politika bolj pravilna. Ne pove pa, če bi se s hitrejšim zategovanjem monetarne politike (višanjem obrestne mere) ZDA izognile finančni krizi (večina nekonzervativnih ekonomistov sicer meni, da bi s sledenjem monetarnemu pravilu ZDA še prej zašle v krizo).

No, ta John Taylor je sedaj eden izmed dveh glavnih Trumpovih kandidatov za vodenje Feda. David Glasner v spodnjem postu pa dokazuje nesmiselnost sledenja nekemu mehanskemu pravilu, pač pa da je treba spremljati gibanja in uporabljati presojo na podlagi podatkov in intuicije.

Uneasy Money

It seems that an announcement about who will be appointed as Fed Chairman after Janet Yellen’s terms expires early next year is imminent. Although there are sources in the Administration, e.g., the President, indicating that Janet Yellen may be reappointed, the betting odds strongly favor Jerome Powell, a Republican currently serving as a member of the Board of Governors, over the better-known contender, John Taylor, who has earned a considerable reputation as an academic economist, largely as author of the so-called Taylor Rule, and has also served as a member of the Council of Economic Advisers and the Treasury in previous Republican administrations.

Taylor’s support seems to be drawn from the more militant ideological factions within the Republican Party owing to his past criticism of Fed’s quantitative-easing policy after the financial crisis and little depression, having famously predicted that quantitative easing would revive dormant inflationary pressures, presaging a return…

View original post 3,814 more words

%d bloggers like this: