Italija pred izstopom iz evra

Wolfgang Münchau v Financial Timesu piše, da je italijanski izhod iz evra le vprašanje časa, kdaj bo na oblast prišla populistična vlada. Takrat se bo začel “samoizpolnjujoč” proces izstopa – zaradi bega denarja iz bank in ponorele cene zadolževanja. Edini način, da do tega ne pride, je kredibilna grožnja Italije Nemčiji, naj slednja spremeni svoj gospodarski kurz.

One day Italy will be led by a party in favour of withdrawal from the euro. When that happens, euro exit would turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy. There would a run on Italy’s banks and its government’s bonds.

Italy’s fate in the eurozone and the possibility of a President Marine Le Pen of France are two large threats to the eurozone and the EU. If Italy wants to stay in the euro, it needs to send a clear warning to Germany and the other northern European countries that the eurozone is set on a path of self-destruction unless there is a change of parameters.

The next Italian prime minister will need to explain to the next German chancellor, presumably Angela Merkel, that her choice will not be between a political union or no political union, but between a political union or Italy’s withdrawal from the euro.

The latter would imply the biggest default in history. The German banking system would be in danger of collapsing, and Europe’s biggest economy would lose all the competitiveness gains so painstakingly accumulated over the past 15 years.

It has been the historic failure of consecutive Italian prime ministers to avoid this necessary confrontation, and to think that staying off the radar screen constitutes a viable strategy.

Vir: Wolfgang Münchau, Financial Times

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