Septembra helikopterski denar, zamaskiran v neko drugo ime?

Guverner Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, je prejšnji mesec v razgovoru z investitorji zavrnil možnost uvedbe helikopterskega denarja, češ da zakonodaja tega ne dopušča in da ni potreben (“no need and no possibility for helicopter money“). Vendar pa morate tukaj dodati velik VENDAR. Prvič, to je običajna praksa Kurode. Leta 2014, tik preden je povečal monetarni stimulus, je Kuroda povedal, da se trend inflacije izboljšuje. Teden dni preden je uvedel negativne obrestne mere je javno izrazil nasprotovanje temu instrumentu.

In drugič, ta mesec so v Tokiju gostili “helikopter Bena“, nekdanjega predsednika Feda Bena Bernankeja, ki je povedal, da bi bil helikopterski denar lahko najmočnejše orožje proti deflaciji. Bolj specifično, razložil je idejo helikopterskega denarja v obliki perpetualnih obveznic brez dospetja, ki jih izda vlada, odkupuje pa centralna banka. Torej, vlada z izdajo obveznic financira povečane javne izdatke (infrastruktura itd.), medtem ko ji obveznic nikoli ni treba poplačati. Plačane obresti pa vlada dobi nazaj prek transferja dobičkov centralne banke v proračun.

Torej, bomo septembra dočakali nov zgodovinski eksperiment s strani Kurode – helikopterski denar, zamaskiran v neko drugo ime?

Kuroda said in a press conference in June that laws don’t allow helicopter and that the BOJ had no intention of financing government debt.

Masaki Kuwahara, an economist at Nomura Securities in Tokyo, said it was hard to judge whether Kuroda was trying to damp expectations about further monetary easing on July 29.

“I expect the BOJ to add stimulus to avoid a return of the deflationary mindset because the price outlook is deteriorating,” Kuwahara said. While he said the BOJ will probably indicate they’re not doing helicopter money, with the government’s fiscal package coming out, Japan may see policy that amounts to something similar.

Ben S. Bernanke, who met Japanese leaders in Tokyo this month, had floated the idea of perpetual bonds during discussions in Washington with one of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s key advisers in April.

Etsuro Honda, who has emerged as a matchmaker for Abe in corralling foreign economic experts to offer policy guidance, said that during an hour-long discussion with Bernanke in April the former Federal Reserve chief warned there was a risk Japan at any time could return to deflation.

 

Bernanke noted that helicopter money — in which the government issues non-marketable perpetual bonds with no maturity date and the Bank of Japan directly buys them — could work as the strongest tool to overcome deflation, according to Honda. Bernanke noted it was an option, Honda said.

Vir: Bloomberg

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