Oil hitting a wartime record illustrates the Iran conflict’s continued ability to upend the world two months in.

But the geopolitical impact of the United Arab Emirates’ drive to carve out its own niche in the region may prove to be a more permanent shift.

The UAE leaving OPEC was perhaps less of a shock to the oil cartel itself. Some believe the emirates will have little choice but to continue working with it to keep global energy markets stable. Still, the UAE is likely to eventually raise production and US President Donald Trump said the move would help lower energy prices.

It’s very much in line with the UAE’s push to lead change in a post-oil era. The timing meant oil prices didn’t drop. OPEC is, after all, of little consequence while the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.

More difficult to predict is how the regional power play will unfold.

Gulf heavyweight Saudi Arabia hasn’t seen eye to eye with its neighbor for years. The UAE is regarded by some as causing fragmentation in an already fragile region through forging an alliance with Israel and refusing to rein in global ambitions spanning Yemen, the Horn of Africa and Sudan.

Underscoring its unilateral approach, the UAE is reconsidering its membership of two regional bodies in which Saudi Arabia holds sway — the Arab League and Organization of Islamic Cooperation — while weighing its long-term involvement in the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council.

The moves could be read as an indictment of Saudi failures within the GCC and larger Arab world.

The divergent camps reflect how many now perceive the future of regional security.

An alliance led by Turkey and Saudi Arabia may emerge, and maybe down the line, one with a different Iran. Without the UAE, it may be easier for others to work together on what to do about Israel.

You can’t change geography.

But it’s hard to escape the sense that a new balance of power is arising.

Vir: Bloomberg