EU po Brexitu: po nemškem taktu v železno kletko?

Yanis Varoufakis pravi, da je nemški finančni minister Schäuble edini, ki ima po Brexitu plan, kaj z EU v bodoče: z malce korenčka (delna fiskalna unija s skupnim mehanizmom nadomestil za brezposelnost)  in veliko palico (veto na nacionalne proračune) bo evrske članice zaprla v železno kletko. Iz tega po njegovem izhajata dva scenarija. Prvič, da bo kletka zdržala in bo v institucionaliziran post prisiljeno evro območje permanentno izvažalo deflacijo. In drugič, da bo kletka počila, nekaj članic bo zapustilo evro in ultimativno bo izstopila Nemčija.

V glavnem, Varoufakis ne verjame, da je Brexit za evropske voditelje lahko dovolj kredibilna grožnja, da bi v strahu pred implozijo EU razrahljali nesmiselno stroga proračunska pravila. Glede na zelo brezkompromisen in oster odziv voditeljev evropskih inštitucij v petek in glede na včerajšnje izjave uradnega Berlina o nujnosti pospešitve formalnih postopkov za izločitev Britanije, se zdi, da ima Varoufakis prav.

Jaz pa še vedno upam, da bo Brexit spametoval evropske voditelje in razrahljal sedanjo evrsko kletko in da razpad EU ne bo potreben.

The only man with a plan is Germany’s finance minister. Schäuble recognises in the post-Brexit fear his great opportunity to implement a permanent austerity union. Under his plan, eurozone states will be offered some carrots and a huge stick. The carrots will come in the form of a small eurozone budget to cover, in some part, unemployment benefits and bank deposit insurance. The stick will be a veto over national budgets.

If I am right, and Brexit leads to the construction of a permanent austerian iron cage for the remaining EU member states, there are two possible outcomes: One is that the cage will hold, in which case the institutionalised austerity will export deflation to Britain but also to China (whose further destabilisation will have secondary negative effects on Britain and the EU).

Another possibility is that the cage will be breached (by Italy or Finland leaving, for instance), the result being Germany’s own departure from the collapsing eurozone. But this will turn the new Deutschmark zone, which will probably end at the Ukrainian border, into a huge engine of deflation (as the new currency goes through the roof and German factories lose international markets). Britain and China had better brace themselves for an even greater deflation shock wave under this scenario.

The horror of these developments, from which Britain cannot be shielded by Brexit, is the main reason why I, and other members of DiEM25, tried to save the EU from the establishment that is driving Europeanism into the ground. I very much doubt that, despite their panic in Brexit’s aftermath, EU leaders will learn their lesson. They will continue to throttle voices calling for the EU’s democratisation and they will continue to rule through fear. Is it any wonder that many progressive Britons turned their back on this EU?

Vir: Yanis Varoufakis, The Guardian

One response

  1. “.the result being Germany’s own departure from the collapsing eurozone.”

    Septembra 2011 na World Bank Meeting-u sem imel priliko govoriti s članom boarda-a ene od največjih svetovnih investicijskih družb. Na moj komentar glede svetovne finančne krize, ki se je tedaj ponovno začela razplamentevati in na omenjanje slovenskih izkušenj z izstopom iz YU in dinarja je odgovoril, da ima Nemčija (septembra 2011 !!!!) v celoti pripravljen plan, da v primeru, da bo to potrebno, v manj kot 6 mesecih uvede nemško marko.

    Države nimajo posmrtnega življenja, zato se mora resna država pripravljati na vse možne opcije. Kako možen je razpad EU, me je septembra 2011 opozoril zgoraj omenjeni razgovor.

%d bloggers like this: