Mind changes

V povezavi z mojim komentarjem Lahko nova dejstva spremenijo naša prepričanja?, kjer navajam izkušnje oziroma “priznanja” vrste ekonomistov in inštitucij, ki so po začetku Velike recesije konec 2008 spremenili/e mnoga svoja ekonomska stališča oziroma poglede, je tukaj še zadnji zapis Tonyja Yatesa.


It’s fashionable now to get out there what you’ve changed your mind on.  The calculation being, perhaps, that unless you do, you will get nowhere arguing hard for your other, unalterable priors.

In that spirit, here are a few thing I changed my mind on.

  1.  The importance of financial ‘plumbing’.  I, like most macro people I talked to, used to think banking in macro was cluttering up models for the sake of it.
  2.  The lack of any effect of minimum wages on employment.
  3.  The minor effects on wages of immigration.
  4.  How sticky price DSGE models are not, clearly, realistic enough to take seriously as devices on which to perform quantitatively relevant optimal control exercises.  For example, I used to admire what the Norges Bank and Riksbank did and thought we at the BoE were well behind the curve.
  5. The usefulness of atheoretical empirical macro.  I used to think we were…

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