Po ohladitvi rasti – nazaj k fundamentom

Dani Rodrik, kot vrhovna avtoriteta med razvojnimi ekonomisti, pravi, da je čas hitre rasti držav v razvoju, ki je temeljila na poceni denarju, kapitalskih prilivih in surovinskem balonu, mimo. Treba se bo vrniti k fundamentom. To pa so vlaganja v izobraževanje, infrastrukturo, razvoj institucij in strukturna transformacija k visoko produktivnim dejavnostim. Slednje je bila v preteklosti industrija, današnje utemeljevanje tega na storitvenem sektorju je kratkega daha oziroma generira počasnejšo rast.

Cheap external finance, plentiful capital inflows, and commodity booms helped hide many such shortcomings and fueled 15 years of emerging-market growth. As the world economy generates stronger headwinds in the years ahead, it will become easier to distinguish countries that have truly strengthened their economic and political fundamentals from those that have coasted on false narratives and the tenuous strength of fickle investor sentiment.

The real lesson from the collapse of the emerging-market hype is the need to pay closer attention to growth fundamentals and to recognize the diversity of circumstances among a group of economies needlessly lumped together.

For developing economies, the three key growth fundamentals are acquisition of skills and education by the workforce; improvement of institutions and governance; and structural transformation from low-productivity to high-productivity activities (as typified by industrialization). East Asian-style rapid growth has typically required a heavy dose of structural transformation for a number of decades, with steady progress on education and institutions providing the longer-term underpinnings of convergence with advanced economies.

Unlike East Asian economies, today’s emerging markets cannot rely on export surpluses in manufactures as their engine of structural transformation and growth. So they are forced to rely more on the longer-term fundamentals of education and institutions. These do generate growth – and indeed are ultimately indispensable to it. But they generate 2-3% annual growth at best, not East Asia’s 7-8% rates.

Vir: Dani Rodrik, Project Syndicate

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