Olivier Blanchard: Ten Take Aways from the “Rethinking Macro Policy: Progress or Confusion?”

Olivier Blanchard, glavni ekonomist IMF, na podlagi spoznanj nedavne IMF konference “Rethinking Macro Policy III” piše o tem, da je vrnitev v “staro normalno” s “starimi” ekonomskimi politikami manj verjetna. Piše, da so njegova stališča bližje Summersu (sekularna stagnacija in dolgoročno nizke obrestne mere) in Bernankeju (kompleksna monetarna politika) kot pa Rogoffu (vrnitev obrestnih mer na stare ravni) in Taylorju (preprosto monetarno pravilo).

Potrebne bodo spremembe v makroekonomskih politikah: monetarna politika z dvojnim mandatom (Fed: cenovna stabilnost + polna zaposlenost) namesto zgolj cenovne stabilnosti (Bundesbanka, ECB), boljše dizajnirana fiskalna politika (ki je nujna v dolgih obdobjih po finančnih krizah), predvsem v EU, ter neka vrsta kontrole nad disruptivnimi mednarodnimi tokovi kapitala (od nadzora tečaja, makro prudenčnih pravil do kapitalskih kontrol).

iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

blanchBy Olivier Blanchard

On April 15-16, the IMF organized the third conference on “Rethinking Macro Policy.

Here are my personal take aways.

1. What will be the “new normal”?  

I had asked the panelists to concentrate not on current policy challenges, but on challenges in the “new normal.” I had implicitly assumed that this new normal would be very much like the old normal, one of decent growth and positive equilibrium interest rates. The assumption was challenged at the conference.

On the one hand, Ken Rogoff argued that what we were in the adjustment phase of the “debt supercycle.” Such financial cycles, he argued, end up with debt overhang, which in turn slows down the recovery and requires low interest rates for some time to maintain sufficient demand.  Under that view, while it may take a while for the overhang to go away, more so in the…

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