Ideološko-konceptualni spopad na ECB: Neokeynesianec proti Avstrijancem

Gavyn Davies je v Financial Timesu lepo zadel bistvo spora na ECB glede monetarne politike. Gre za ideološko-konceptualni spopad med dvema fundamentalno različnima ekonomskima šolama. Na eni strani je predsednik Mario Draghi, z doktoratom iz MIT ter neo-keynesiansko fundiranim in fedovsko praktičnim pristopom k monetarni politiki, ki izhaja iz tega, da je trajna brezposelnost največja izguba človeškega potenciala in največja grožnja za družbeni red. Na drugi strani je trop ordoliberalnih nemških ekonomistov, ki svoje predstave o reševanju kriz vlečejo iz “avstrijske” ekonomske šole (Hayek, Schumpeter, von Mises), katerih temeljni postulat je, da država ne bi smela posegati v času krize. Gospodarstvo mora samo prebroditi krizo in se prečistiti, slabi naj propadejo. Država z vmešavanjem zgolj poslabša stvari in zaseje seme nove krize.

Ob takšni ideološki razklanosti je seveda težko oblikovati koherentno monetarno politiko. Na eni strani praktični pristop, na drugi moralika. Ko prvo trči na drugo, zmaga ideologija.

The dispute is fundamental and longstanding. Mr Draghi has adopted the New Keynesian approach that dominates US academia and central banking. There is really no difference between the philosophy that underpins his latest speech and that of Ben Bernanke, vintage 2011-13. In contrast, recent remarks by representative hawks such as Mr Weidmann and ECB executive board member Yves Mersch stem directly from the Austrian school of European economics. It is no wonder that these differences are so difficult to bridge.

To start with a point of agreement, both sides accept that the ECB is failing to hit its inflation objective, and both admit that this is a serious issue. However, there is a major difference in the urgency attached to this. Mr Draghi says that inflation must be raised “as fast as possible” because “the firm anchoring of inflation expectations is critical under any circumstances”.

In contrast, Mr Weidmann says that “a problematic wage-price spiral is still a remote prospect”, and adds that “monetary policy matters should be considered with a degree of calm”. That is presumably why the Bundesbank president voted against the monetary easing announced by the ECB in September, though he did support the consideration of further unconventional measures, as announced by the GC in November.

Vir: Gavyn Davies, Financial Times

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