Zakaj je monetarno stimuliranje bolj nevarno od fiskalnega

Martin Wolf, glavni ekonomski komentator Financial Timesa, ki je nedavno izdal knjigo “The Shifts and the Shocks“, pravilno ugotavlja, da je monetarno stimuliranje gospodarstva prek pumpanja ogromnih količin denarja v banke ali odkupovanja enormnih količin podjetniških vrednostnih papirjev (prek QE) bistveno bolj nevarno od fiskalnega stimuliranja gospodarstva prek povečanih javnih deficitov. Monetarno stimuliranje namreč spodbuja zadolževanje zasebnega sektorja in napihovanje finančnih in nepremičninskih balonov, kar je natanko tisti glavni razlog, ki je povzročil sedanjo krizo. Krize ni sprožila preveč potratna država (javno trošenje), pač pa divje in nekontrolirano zadolževanje zasebnega sektorja prek bank, ki jih je nato država morala reševati.

Torej povečano javno trošenje za spodbuditev gospodarske rasti je v tej situaciji bolj na mestu kot pa pumpanje denarja v finančni sektor. Država lažje nadzoruje in uravnava svoj dolg kot pa zasebni sektor.

One of the arguments in my view for using fiscal policy more and monetary policy less was that it is one way of reducing precisely the risk you supposed. People seem to have this very strange idea that fiscal policy — which of course means government borrowing more — is somehow much more dangerous than monetary policy, which you rightly say means the private sector borrowing more.

But the one lesson we learned from this crisis is having the private sector borrowing vast amounts it can’t afford is not great either. So this assumption that fiscal leverage is bad and private leverage is good just strikes me as completely unsubstantiated and unsupported by the evidence.

There is, of course, the even more radical possibility, suggested by of all people Milton Friedman, of helicopter money, which means direct monetary financing of larger government deficits on a permanent basis. That would have been a perfectly possible policy — in my view, the most effective of all possible policies. Of course it was seen as completely inconceivable.

Vir: Martin Wolf, Vox

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