Ta članek Matta O’Briena v Washington Postu pokaže na brutalno resnico o evropski veliki depresiji. Gre za napako politike – za vztrajanje pri evru za vsako ceno. Zgodba je podobna kot v 1930. letih, ko so države vztrajale pri zlatem standardu, ker naj bi ta simboliziral civilizacijski dosežek. Toda vzdrževanja deviznega tečaja do zlate paritete je vodilo v globoko depresijo. Države, ki so po letih vztrajanja pri zlatem standardu, tega odpravile, so okrevale. Države, ki so vztrajale pri zlatu, so poglobile recesijo.

In evro je zelo podoben zlatemu standardu, le s to ključno razliko – da ga države ne morejo odpraviti. Zaradi sentimentalne navezanosti na njegov simbolni civilizacijski dosežek. Zato jih bo pokopal. Posamične države ne morejo izstopiti iz evro območja, ta možnost sploh ni predvidena. Ne morejo devalvirati, ne morejo tiskati denarja, prisiljene so rezati javno trošenje, zato se vedno globlje zapletajo v padanje gospodarske aktivnosti in cen in naraščajočo brezposelnost. Na koncu tega tunela trpljenja ni ničesar lepega, so zgolj ruševine, povzročene s katastrofalno napačno ekonomsko politiko.

As I was arguing last week, it’s time to call the eurozone what it really is: one of the biggest catastrophes in economic history.

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It’s a policy-induced disaster. Too much fiscal austerity and too little monetary stimulus have crippled growth like almost never before. Europe is doing worse than Japan during its “lost decade,” worse than the sterling bloc during the Great Depression, and barely better than the gold bloc then—though even that silver lining isn’t much of one. That’s because, at this rate, it’ll only be another year until the eurozone is well behind the gold bloc, too.

So how is Europe making the Great Depression look like the good old days of growth? Easy: by ignoring everything we learned from it.

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Just like the 1930s, Europe is stuck with a fixed exchange system that doesn’t let them print, spend, or devalue their way out of a crisis. But, unlike then, Europe might never give it up. It’s a fidelity to failure that even the gold bloc couldn’t have imagined. And that leaves the ECB as Europe’s only hope—which means they’re probably doomed.

Now, to be fair, the Draghi-led ECB has done about as much as it can given its legal and political constraints. But you don’t grade unemployment on a curve. And those constraints aren’t going to go away, not enough anyway, to avoid a lost decade or two. Instead, the ECB will probably keep doing the bare minimum: some half-hearted quantitative easing that will stop as soon as Germany starts to grow faster.

They have made a desert, and called it the eurozone.

Vir: Matt O’Brien, Washington Post