Zakaj “metanje denarja iz helikopterja” vedno deluje

Gre za staro parabolo Miltona Friedmana in kasneje Paula Samuelsona, ali je v času gospodarske depresije mogoče z “metanjem denarja iz helikopterja” spodbuditi agregatno povpraševanje. Friedman je bil seveda proti, Samuelson pa za. Willem Buiter (nekoč glavni ekonomist EBRD, profesor na LSE in sedaj glavni ekonomist Citigroup) v pravkar izdanem paperju ugotavlja, da tovrstna politika vedno deluje, saj so trije pogoji za njeno učinkovitost vedno izpolnjeni. Ali drugače povedano, spodbujanje agregatnega povpraševanja prek javnega trošenja, ki se financira prek politike kvantitativnega sproščanja (ko centralna banka odkupuje državne obveznice), je načeloma vedno učinkovito. V likvidnostni pasti pa ni nevarnosti za posledično inflacijo. In še več, deflacija (nizka inflacija) in sekularna stagnacija sta tako povsem nepotrebna in sta zgolj stvar politične odločitve.

Ta paper bo še buril duhove.

The author provides a rigorous analysis of Milton Friedman’s parable of the ‘helicopter’ drop of money a permanent/irreversible increase in the nominal stock of fiat base money rate which respects the intertemporal budget constraint of the consolidated Central Bank and Treasury – the State. Examples are a temporary fiscal stimulus funded permanently through an increase in the stock of base money and permanent QE – an irreversible, monetized open market purchase by the Central Bank of non-monetary sovereign – debt. Three conditions must be satisfied for helicopter money always to boost aggregate demand. First, there must be benefits from holding fiat base money other than its pecuniary rate of return. Second, fiat base money is irredeemable – viewed as an asset by the holder but not as a liability by the issuer. Third, the price of money is positive. Given these three conditions, there always exists – even in a permanent liquidity trap – a combined monetary and fiscal policy action that boosts private demand – in principle without limit. Deflation, ‘lowflation’ and secular stagnation are therefore unnecessary. They are policy choices.

Celoten članek je dosegljiv tukaj.

En odgovor

  1. Ta članek ima tri značilnosti, zaradi katerih je popolnoma neuporaben:
    1) Mikro osnove
    2) Racionalna pričakovanja
    3) Popolni in učinkoviti finančni trgi

    Q.E.D.

    i

    Všeč mi je

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