Jubileji: 80. rojstni dan BDP in 100. rojstni dan FED

Te dni lahko pačastimo dva velika jubileja: bruto domači proizvod (BDP) praznuje 80. rojstni dan, ameriška centralna banka Fed pa 100. rojstni dan. Oba sta bila uvedena po velikih pretresih v ameriškem gospodarstvu.

Fed so dejansko ustanovili na skrivaj: leta 1910 se je na otočku Jekyll pred obalo Georgie v popolni tajnosti zbralo šest možakarjev (t.i. “First Name Club”, ker so se naslavljali po imenu) in v devetih dneh in nočeh naredilo predlog za ustanovitev Fed. Kongres je zakon o Fed sprejel decembra 1913. S tem so ZDA po dolgih desetletjih političnih nasprotovanj ustanovile inštitucijo, ki naj bi obvarovala banke pred finančnimi panikami.

Dober uvid v ustanovitev Fed najdete v zapisu Neila Irwina v Washington Postu, kjer je objavil odlomke iz njegove nove knjige “The Alchemists: Three Central Bankers and a World on Fire“.

Ustanovitev Fed sicer ni preprečila finančnih panik, predvsem ne tiste iz let 1929-1930, je pa kasneje z učenjem na napakah pripomogla k večji finančni stabilnosti. Hkrati pa je velika gospodarska depresija 1929-1933 pokazala, da vlada ne samo, da nima nujno pravih konceptov za vodenje ekonomske politike, pač pa, da tudi samega gospodarstva ne pozna dobro. Problem je bil v tem, da da vlada pred tem ni vedela niti tega ali gospodarstvo že okreva ali ne, saj za to ni imela nobene statistične podlage. Zato so leta 1934 izumili bruto domači proizvod (BDP) kot koncept, ki naj bi beležil večino (registriranih) ekonomskih aktivnosti in s tem ekonomski politiki omogočil lažje spremljanje in načrtovanje. To je bil zametek sedanjih “družbenih računov”, računovodskega sistema nacionalnega gospodarstva.

Nalogo, da pripravi tak koncept družbenih računov, je leta 1932 dobil ekonomist (in kasnejši Nobelovec) Simon Kuznets. 4. januarja 1934, po letu in pol dela, je Kuznets Kongresu predal obsežno poročilo oziroma strokovne podlage glede BDP, v katerih je pojasnil tudi njegove prednosti in slabosti. Torej kaj BDP dejansko meri in česa ne. Dober vpogled v nastanek koncepta BDP je na blogu podal Jonathan Rowe:

In the early 1930s, as the U.S. sank deeper into an economic slough, Congress faced an absence of data to help guide the way out. It didn’t really know exactly what was happening, and where. There were no systematic figures on unemployment or production. Then-President Hoover had dispatched six employees from the Commerce Department to travel around the country and file reports. These were anecdotal and tended towards the Hoover view that recovery was just around the corner.

Members of Congress wanted more. Senator Robert LaFollette, a Republican, introduced a resolution to require the Commerce Department to develop a spreadsheet – as we would call it today – of economy with its component parts. LaFollette was a Progressive in the original sense. He believed in “scientific management and planning;” and the resolution was to produce a tool to that end. It passed on June 8th, 1932, and the work fell to one Simon Kuznets, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania who was working at the National Bureau for Economic Research in New York.

Kuznets was clear that he was producing a policy tool, and not a measure of living standards or wellbeing. As he put it later in his clinical prose, the goal was to help understand the “relations and relative importance of various parts of the productive system and their responsiveness to various types of stimulae as shown by their changes in the past.”

The project was a marvel by today’s standards. Kuznets had virtually no budget, and a tiny staff. Data sources were fragmentary. But about a years and a half later, Kuznets submitted his report to Congress. It is Senate Document 124, 73rd Congress, 2nd Session, January 4, 1934, and I urge you to read it. The national accounts were a first, but even more remarkable was the report that came with them. With a brevity and candor that are rare today, Kuznets laid out for Congress the limitations of the accounts he had constructed. He took particular pains to tell you why you should not use these accounts the way you – and the media – have come to use them.

Vir: Jonathan Rowe

Po začetku sedanje velike recesije so se ponovno razplamtele diskusije, da BDP ne meri dobro, kako dejansko deluje gospodarstvo, saj izpušča velik del dejanske družbene proizvodnje in blaginje. S tem namenom je tedanji francoski predsednik Sarkozy leta 2008 ustanovil posebno skupino ekonomistov pod vodstvom Nobelovca Josepha Stiglitza, ki naj bi pripravila nov koncept merjenja družbene proizvodnje in blaginje. Leta 2009 je skupina pripravila t.i. Stiglitzevo poročilo.

No, od takrat se glede implementacije te alternativne mere družbene proizvodnje in blaginje ni zgodilo prav veliko.

2 responses

  1. Najboljši odgovor na gornji apologetski zapis FED-a v Washington Postu je dal komentator:

    DrPeterJohnPalms 12/21/2013 8:15 PM GMT+0100

    “The basic plan for the Federal Reserve System was drafted at a secret meeting held in November of 1910 at the private resort of J.P. Morgan on Jekyll Island off the coast of Georgia. Those who attended represented the great financial institutions of Wall Street and, indirectly, Europe as well. The reason for secrecy was simple. Had it been known that rival factions of the banking community had joined together, the public would have been alerted to the possibility that the bankers were plotting an agreement in restraint of trade—which, of course, is exactly what they were doing. What emerged was a cartel agreement with five objectives: stop the growing competition from the nation’s newer banks; obtain a franchise to create money out of nothing for the purpose of lending; get control of the reserves of all banks so that the more reckless ones would not be exposed to currency drains and bank runs; get the taxpayer to pick up the cartel’s inevitable losses; and convince Congress that the purpose was to protect the public. It was realized that the bankers would have to become partners with the politicians and that the structure of the cartel would have to be a central bank. The record shows that the Fed has failed to achieve its stated objectives. That is because those were never its true goals. As a banking cartel, and in terms of the five objectives stated above, it has been an unqualified success.”

    Dajte naslednjič ko bo dr. Zakrajšek dajal izjave o pajdaškem (tudi “tovarišijskem”) kapitalizmu (ala “crony capitalism”) ga raje spomnit na strukturo FED-a kjer je zaposlen. Gre za vrhunsko obliko “pajdaškega kapitalizma” in ugrabitvijo države pod sloganom “nacionalnega interesa”!!! Dr. Križanič je lepo povedal v odgovorih bralcev v zadnji Mladini, ko je dejal, da ob planirani razprodaji nacionalne lastnine ” v ozadju čakajo precej večji kalibri od teh, zaradi katerih se sekiramo sedaj”.

    Malo ljudi ve, da je bitka med idejo državne in privatne centralne banke leit motiv gigantskega boja za kontrolo ameriške družbe od neodvisnosti naprej. Na kar je posebej opozarjal moj najljubši ameriški predsednik Jefferson. Ustanovitev FED-a leta 2013 je 5 poskus. Kot je pred stoletji dejal pripadnik družine ki kontrolira tako ključne ameriške kot evropske banke, ki so lastnice FED-a, “če kontroliram izdajanje denarja, je manj pomembno kdo izdaja zakone” oz. za tiste, ki ne razumejo; če kontroliraš izdajanje denarja, boš tudi politiko. Centralna banka, ki izdaja svetovno rezervno valuto (dokler bo še) je v rokah privatnega bančnega kartela za katerega se uradno ne sme vedeti niti kdo so njegovi lastniki!!!

    Tudi zadnji zaplet v zvezi z izdajo kovanca za 1.000 milijard USD morate gledati v tej luči. Ameriška država je namreč v skladu z ustavo ZDA zadržala pravico izdajanja kovancev, medtem, ko ima pravico izdajanja “fiat currency” oz. papirnatega (ali nematerialnega) US dollarja, FED. Na to razliko tudi opozarja napis na dolarskem bankovcu, ki je “Federal Reserve Note”. Pred 1913 je bil ” United States Note”. Svetovna rezervna valuta je zadolžnica privatnega tajnega bančnega kartela. Ki tudi seveda pobira seignorage – oz. prihodke izdajatelja denarja. Plačuje pa jih cel svet.

    Leta 2011 je bila na pobudo (po 100 letih) libertarnega ameriškega senatorja Ron Paula dana pobuda za revizijo FED-a. Pobuda je dobila močno podporo v kongresu, padla pa je v senatu. Po stotih letih ameriški državljani ne smejo izvedeti kam je šlo 26.000 (beri tisoč) milijard USD za sanacijo ameriških in tujih bank!!!
    Najraje vidim, ko mi nekdo iz kroga ameriških neokonservativcev (ali domačih neoliberalcev) razlaga o demokraciji!

  2. Lepa anekdota, jaz pa moram naprej še iskati, kako se res računa BDP. Upam, da bom kje našel. Po moje se računa dodana vrednost podjetij in to je to. Je še kaj? Nekje sem prebral, da so v želji, da bi javnost obveščali o čim večjem BDP, v izračune želeli vključiti software in rezultate znanstveni raziskav, ki še nimajo komercialne vrednosti. To bi bile nematerialne zaloge ali nekaj takega. Po moje bi bil dober približek BDP tisto, na kar se obračuna davek na dodano vrednost. Torej, dodana vrednost = BDP.

%d bloggers like this: