Pet vprašanj, na katere ekonomija nima odgovora

Včeraj je Bloomberg objavil zanimiv in zabaven komentar Caroline Baum, ki pravi, da ekonomija nikoli ni bila in nikoli ne bo znanost, in sicer ker ne zna odgovoriti niti na naslednjih pet vprašanj:

  1. What is the expected rate of economic growth in conjunction with a 4 percent federal funds rate?
  2. What is the effect on inflation of a 300 percent increase in the monetary base?
  3. What is the effect — the multiplier — of a $1 increase in government spending on output?
  4. What is the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment, or the jobless rate that triggers rising prices?
  5. What is the wealth effect from a 20 percent increase in the major stock indexes? What about a 100 percent increase?

The answer to all five questions is, it depends. And that’s one of the main reasons that economics isn’t, and will never be, a science.

Po njenih besedah je, če naredimo primerjavo z newtonovsko mehaniko, zadeva povsem jasna: fiziki lahko v dveh zaporednih poskusih replicirajo rezultate, ekonomisti ne morejo, ker ne morejo kontrolirati za vse možne različne zunanje učinke. Zato ekonomija ni znanost in ekonomisti naj se prenehajo slepiti, da so znanstveniki. Pika.

Za nadaljevanje diskusije glejte moj včerašnji post Zakaj ekonomija ni znanost.

%d bloggers like this: