Kot piše včerajšnji Spiegel, znižanje ratinga Slovenije za tri stopnje prihaja ob izjemno neugodnem trenutku za evrske države. Signal, da tudi Slovenija kot šesta članica evro območja utegne potrebovati pomoč EU, utegne poglobiti težave celotnega evro območja glede načina financiranja šibkejših članic. Po tem, ko guverner ECB na četrtkovem zasedanju sveta ECB ni prišel na plan s konkretnimi predlogi, kako namerava “z vsemi sredstvi” ubraniti evro, je postalo še bolj očitno, da niti ECB niti EU načrta sploh nimata.

Spiegel v članku opisuje težave Slovenije, ki izhajajo iz slabe finančne situacije največjih bank v državni lasti (NLB, NKBM, Abanka) ter javnofinančne težave zaradi negativne gospodarske rasti in slabih gospodarskih obetov v prihodnje. Te javnofinančne težave se bodo še poglobile zaradi potrebe po dokapitalizaciji oziroma sanaciji bank. Pri tem Spiegel navaja moje ocene o možnih implikacijah na javnofinančno situacijo, če bi Slovenija sanirala slabe terjatve v celotnem bančnem sistemu:

Slovenia’s dire financial situation will only be intensified by weak economic growth, the ratings agency cautioned. The agency further noted that Ljubljana has failed to get a grip on its budget deficit, which could exceed the 3.5 percent of GDP allowed under euro-zone rules aimed at ensuring the common currency’s stability.

Economists inside Slovenia are also no longer banking on their country’s ability to master its financial problems on its own. Respected Slovenian economist Joze Damijan recently said that the only remaining options were either applying for a full bailout from the European Union’s euro rescue fund, or taking the Spanish approach, seeking aid money for banks alone.

Damijan estimates the volume of bad loans at Slovenian banks to be between €6 billion and €8 billion ($7.3 billion to $9.8 billion). The clean-up of these toxic assets could bloat the budget deficit to between 20 and 28 percent of GDP and thus drive up yields on Slovenian bonds to more than 12 percent, he says. “These are interest rates with which no country can finance itself in the mid-term, much less in the long-term,” Damijan said. “In this case, Slovenia must follow the examples of Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal, and ask for EU aid.”