Iskanje konca vojne v Ukrajini je v tipičnem limbu:

• Obe primarni vojskujoči se strani (Rusija in ZDA) sta pripravljeni nehati svojo vojno na ozemlju Ukrajine,
• Toda žrtev te vojne (Ukrajina) ni pripravljena sprejeti cene te vojne (da bo plačevala v nedogled za ameriško dosedanjo “pomoč” in za implicitno zaščito pred Rusijo (prek ameriške zaščite svojih gospodarskih interesov / vložkov / donosov v Ukrajini)),
• In najbolj glasne čivave v Evropi (Francija, V. Britanija, Poljska, Baltske in Skandinavske države) niso pripravljene sprejeti mirne rešitve v Ukrajini, ker …  Ja, zakaj? Ker bi bilo to v nasprotju z dosedanjim narativom, da je Putin nesprovocirano napadel Ukrajino? Da je treba Rusijo poraziti, sicer mir ne bo pravičen? Da je bolje, da se Ukrajina še naslednjih 5 ali 10 let vojskuje z ruskimi silami, dokler se evropska obramba ne postavi na noge v takšni meri, da bi lahko nadomestila umik ZDA iz Nata in s tem ameriške zaščite Evrope?

Toda dejstva so neizprosna: Ukrajina se ne more bojevati 5 ali 10 let, saj se ne more bojevati niti naslednjega pol leta, (1) ker ji je zmanjkalo vojakov, (2) ker bi ZDA umaknile svojo pomoč v orožju, obveščevalnih podatkih in koordinaciji vojaških akcije in (3) ker države EU ne morejo nadomestiti ameriške vojaške pomoči in ker nimajo vojakov, niti se jih ne upajo napotiti v Ukrajino. In države EU, tudi če vsako leto vložijo 800 milijard v orožje, v 10 letih ne bodo varne pred rusko jedrsko nevarnostjo. Ker tudi ZDA niso varne pred njo, saj ima Rusija nedosegljivo prednost v nosilcih te nevarnosti (hipersonične rakete). Torej?

Torej vojna v Ukrajini je efektivno končana za primarna nasprotnika (ZDA in Rusijo). Ker sta se obe državi tako odločili. Koliko časa se lahko Ukrajina in države EU še oklepajo iluzije, da je mogoč drugačen izid te vojne, kot so si ga domišljali zadnja tri leta? Koliko časa se lahko wishful thinking še bojuje proti realnosti?

Ne prav dolgo. Realnost bo kmalu prevladala, ker pač temelji na trdih dejstvih. Zelenski se bo prejkoslej moral umakniti in države EU bodo morale narediti svojo lastno vojaško unijo.

V spodnjem pogovoru so te stvari samo še bolj kruto predstavljene.

V članku v New York Timesu ni sicer nič dramatično novega in česar nismo vedeli že vsaj dve leti in pol. Gre zgolj za počasno in postopno konvergenco med uradnim narativom in dejansko situacijo zadnja tri leta v Ukrajini.

Die-hard FDV-jevci bodo sicer do konca zanikali ameriško vpletenost v vojno v Ukrajini in poudarjali, da ZDA zgolj pomagajo napadeni državi, ki se bori proti agresorju. To me spominja na definicijo žene, kot jo je podal moj prijatelj pravnik: Žena je tista oseba, ki ti pomaga pri reševanju težav, ki jih ne bi imel, če ne bi bil poročen. No, ZDA so tisti zaveznik, ki Ukrajini pomaga v boju proti ruski agresiji, do katere ne bi prišlo, če ne bi ZDA sprovocirale te vojne (z vabljenjem Ukrajine v Nato in obljubo članstva, če premaga Rusijo). S to razliko, da ima žena (običajno) resne namene z zakonsko zvezo, medtem ko so se ZDA samo malce igrale v Ukrajini, da oslabijo Rusijo.

Spodaj je uporaben kratek povzetek članka v NY Timesu, če se vam ne da brati originala.

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Trumpovsko. Ja, v.čeraj sem si ogledal Vajenca, kasneje pa še dokumentarec o tej osebi. In tale pesem mi je padla na misel ob gledanju.

Malce preveč blizu originala, vendar dobro

I was speaking on possibility of DeepSeek moment in lithography for many months with much ridicule from Twitter lithographers. I am sad to be proven correct but since truth is now out I will confess.

The United State is slowly realizing there is no way to stop Chinese lithography industry. Sanctions have been misapplied and the industry has reached escape velocity. ASML sees writing on wall and this why they open service facility in Beijing. They have no choice but to service older machines or risk being shut out of the market forever. TSMC is aware of this for many months and all senior leadership has been a warning of risk we may lose competitiveness on mature nodes. As for EUV light generation the progress Beijing has made has been astonishing… The DeepSeek moment in lithography I hinted before is sooner than many realize. I try not to cause panic before but I say this now with hope my voice gets heard by those who can influence government:

Taiwanese & U.S. government have been aware for many months that Beijing is developing an EUV mega source. This source is called the “High Energy Photon Source” (HEEPS) it is a storage ring synchrotron particle accelerator and is planned to provide 1000x more power than a single ASML High NA machine. There are plans to distribute the light to multiple semiconductor fabrication plants similar to the way a power plant distributes electricity. The construction of the facility is  estimated to reach completion soon and is the CCP and Chinese Academia of Sciences top priority. I am attaching images for reference.

It is time for United States to start a similar effort and treat high power EUV light source as national security priority! We need a Manhattan project for lithography!  The move of TSMC R&D facility and members to Arizona was not coincidence! It is the first step of a long road to self sufficiency for USA semiconductors.

Vir: Dr Kim

I explain my hypothesis of this thermodynamics-based natural climate change mechanism in an interview at the Inst. of Earth Phys. & Space Sci., Sopron (Hungary). Among those who also favor a heat-transport theory of climate change is Prof. Richard Lindzen.

Books:

Solving the Climate Puzzle. The Sun’s Surprising Role.

Climate of the Past, Present and Future. A Scientific Debate

I know it’s the norm nowadays but it’s still amazing to see flat-out lies like this in major media outlets.

Putin didn’t in the least “endorse Trump’s Greenland takeover”, in fact he called it “concerning” because it shows that “NATO countries are increasingly often designating the Far North as a springboard for possible conflicts.” And he added that Russia needed to “proceed from current realities and respond to all this.”

I’m using the exact same Putin speech The Guardian references in their article, which he made “at an Arctic policy forum in the northern Russian city of Murmansk”.

Anyone can verify this for themselves: read Putin’s speech and then read The Guardian article and you’ll see it’s a complete misrepresentation.

The Guardian then uses this supposed “endorsement” by Putin to make the case that he is an “enthusiastic ally” of “Trump’s transactional view of the world, as well as his deep suspicion of transnational organisations set up after the second world war,” like “the United Nations.”

But this is of course shockingly wrong too, as Russia, together with China and Global South countries in general keep emphasizing that they actually want a much bigger role for the UN in a future multipolar world order.

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Ambassador Jack Matlock speaks about how he and President Reagan negotiated an end to the Cold War, and how NATO expansionism instigated a new Cold War.

Matlock speaks about the great opposition that had to be countered within the US as it was believed that Moscow could not be trusted, and military pressure was believed to be the only approach. Working against war hawks on both sides, disarmament became the skeleton structure to develop mutual trust and end the Cold War. The Cold War eventually ended through negotiations in 1989 that produced a common peace. However, the Soviet Union collapsed two years later, and the neocons hijacked the narrative by claiming the Cold War was won. Peace was believed to have been created through military dominance, which lent support to the policy of NATO expansionism that destroyed the post-Cold War peace. Ambassador Matlock explains how we have, yet again, ended up in a situation where dangerous war narratives are elevated above reality, and military pressure is yet again believed to be the only path to peace.