Včeraj mi je kolega poslal povezavo na nov strateški program Evropske komisije, imenovan “European technological sovereignty package“. Zbodla me je votla pompoznost besed, s katerimi so evropski neizvoljeni avtokrati pospremili ta strateški paket in začrtali njegove cilje. Takole gre:

The European Commission has put forward the European technological sovereignty package, a set of measures to strengthen the EU’s capacity in semiconductors, artificial intelligence (AI), cloud and open source.

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These measures will enable Europe to become an AI continent – that is to say, a global leader in the research, development and adoption of artificial intelligence. This new package fasts-tracks this ambition, protecting Europe’s digital independence. The tech sovereignty package builds on and complements existing initiatives such as the Competitiveness Compass and the Economic Security Strategy.

Ob takšni votli pompoznosti naših evropskih avtokratov normalen človek niha med vprašanjem, ali so se ti avtokrati nenadoma prebudili iz stoletnega spanca Trnujčice, in vprašanjem, kaj so pokadili, preden so se lotili sestavljanja tega programa in opisovanja njegovih učinkov.

Oprostite, EU je tehnološko revolucijo zamudila pred dobrimi 30 leti, ko se je z oblikovanjem Enotnega evropskega trga s skupnimi evropskimi politikami glede omejevanja konkurence, zatiranja državne pomoči in nato s z množico regulacij (od GDPR, blockchaina do umetne inteligence in avtonomne vožnje) odločila, da bo z ekscesivno regulacijo zatrla tehnološki napredek in njegovo uporabo v gospodarstvu, administraciji, zdravstvu,…, in vsakdanjem življenju. Podatkovnim centrom in umetni inteligenci se je EU odpovedala po letu 2010, ko je s fanfarami šla na pot zelene transformacije prek energije sonca in vetra in s križarsko vojno proti jedrski energiji in plinu. Noben podatkovni center ne mor edfelovati brez stalne, zanesljive oskrbe s poceni električno energijo, ki jo umetna inteligenca potrebuje tako kot mi ljudje kisik in hrano. Noben podatkovni center ne deluje na sonce (tistih nekaj ur, ko sije sonce). Še naš slovenski superračunalnik je priklopljen na dravske hidro elektrarne.

Oprostite, EU je tehnološko revolucijo prespala in izpustila (tako kot Kitajska industrijsko revolucijo pred 200 leti). Prepozno je, EU nima nobenega tehnološkega velikana, nima niti lastnega softverja za vsakdanjo uporabo, nima lastnega razvoja čipov, nima lastnega razvoja umetne inteligence. EU nima zanesljive oskrbe z elektriko, nima poceni elektrike (razen Francije in Švedske). EU nima ničesar, s čimer bi lahko tekmovala z ZDA in Kitajsko, ki sta se tehnološke revolucije lotili pred tremi desetletji. EU ne more več biti “voditelj v raziskovanju in razvoju umetne inteligence“, ker v ta namen ni pred desetletji usmerila desetin milijard evrov in ker je vsakogar, ki je imel potencial za razvoj uničila z regulacijo, uporabo podatkovnih centrov pa onemogočila z visokimi cenami elektrike.

Bahati zapis ob pospremitvi “evropske tehnoške strategije” se bere kot samoparodija najvišjih uradnikov EU.

Zdaj pa pride najbolj perverzni del zgodbe. Ime novega EU programa se glasi “European technological sovereignty package“, predzadnji stavek v zapisu na spletni strani programa s to objavo pa se glasi: “This new package fasts-tracks this ambition, protecting Europe’s digital independence.” Torej paket, ki naj bi zagotovil evropsko suverenost in neodvisnost na področju razvoja čipov, umetne inteligence in podatkov v oblakih. Toda istočasno z lansiranjem tega programa je EU podpisala z ZDA t.i. Pax Silica, s katerim se je zavezala, da bo apriori izločila vse kitajske komponentne in softverske rešitve in se navezala na ameriške. Ta usmeritev seveda ne pomeni tehnološke suverenosti in neodvisnosti EU, pač pa pomeni, da se je s tem EU zavezala, da se bo sama zaprla v ameriško tehnološko kletko.

Resna usmeritev v tehnološko suverenost in neodvisnost zahteva tehnološko nevtralnost z namenom učenja in kopiranja najboljših rešitev v zgodnjih fazah lastnega digitalnega tehnološkega razvoja, dokler evropski razvojniki in tehnološka podjetja ne bi dohiteli kitajskih, korejskih, ameriških itd. tehnoloških liderjev. Nato bi, podprta z ustrezno ravnijo tehnološke naprednosti, prišla faza tehnološke neodvisnosti na osnovi lastnih tehnoloških rešitev. Tako so naredile ZDA v drugi polovici 19. stoleta in prvi polovici 20 stoletja, ko so prekopirale evropski tehnološki razvoj in “pokupile” evropske znanstvenike in razvojnike od Tesle naprej, tako je naredila Japonska po drugi svetovni vojni s kopiranjem ameriških in evropskih tehnoloških rešitev, in tako je naredila Kitajska po letu 1980, ko je z odprto glavo prekopirala evropsko, japonsko in ameriško tehnologijo. In Kitajska je danes na isti tehnološki ravni kot ZDA ali celo nekaj korakov pred njimi.

No, evropski tehnokrati so se namesto tega zaprli v ameriško tehnološko (in s tem gospodarsko in politično kletko) in nam zdaj ta pripor poskušajo prodati kot evropsko tehnološko suverenost in neodvisnost. To ni strategija, to je državna izdaja.

Spodaj je dober zapis Arnauda Bertranda na to temo:

A friend calls you: “So there’s this guy in my neighborhood. He keeps insulting me in public, slapped me around a few times, and told everyone he might take my garage. Last month he tried to annex my neighbor’s yard. He now wants me to join his “club” where I can only buy groceries from his store, even if the shop across the street sells the same thing for half the price. He named the club “The I Want to Dominate This Block Association.” I hate this guy and desperately want to get away from him… Should I join the club?”

Well, your friend pretty much described the EU joining America’s “Pax Silica” – which they apparently just committed to (https://x.com/BertuzLuca/status/2062120295498952724?s=20)

Starting with the name. Typically, when great powers set up an initiative that is imperialistic in nature, they pick a name that says the opposite: “alliance for progress,” “partnership for peace,” etc.

This time, evidently in no mood for euphemism, the US straight up called their initiative the most imperialistic name conceivable, directly inspired by the Roman Empire (Pax Romana). Literally the equivalent of naming your neighborhood club “The I Want to Dominate This Block Association.”

And it’s exactly what it, quite explicitly, sets out to do. It’s written right on the tin (https://state.gov/pax-silica ): countries sign up, align their supply chains with Washington, shut out Chinese products – however good or cheap – and buy American. The neighborhood bully grocery store clause, basically, except it’s for the most strategic technology of the century: the entire AI stack.

Worse still, as I explain in my article, not only is the EU voluntarily locking itself into even further dependency on the very power it keeps saying it needs to break free from, but it’s doing so in a way that will make it all the more difficult for them to compete in the layer of AI that will matter most – the application layer, where the actual value of AI will get built.

That’s the fundamental con behind “Pax Silica”: on the one hand the declaration they wrote (https://state.gov/pax-silica ) affirms that “the 21st century will run on compute” just like “the 20th century ran on oil and steel,” yet on the other hand they’re building a system that makes that very resource scarcer and more expensive for every member of the club – everyone, that is, except for themselves who get to sell it.

On top of ensuring, if we keep using their “oil and steel” analogy, that members of the club don’t drill their own oil wells or build their own steel mills.

In short Pax Silica is not a wall against China, it’s really a cage to keep America’s “partners” in – dependent on American tech, and unable to build their own.

To understand the full argument and how Europe is making – yet again – another massive strategic mistake that will set it back immensely for the most consequential technology of the future, it’s all in my latest article titled “The Pax Silica Con”: https://open.substack.com/pub/arnaudbertrand/p/the-pax-silica-con?r=4r0pw&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true