Zakaj Iran vztraja pri pobiranju pristojbine za prečkanje Hormuške ožine

Zahtevana pristojbina za prečkane Hormuške ožine je relativno nizka – med 0.5 in 1 dolarjem za sodček, kar predstavlja manj kot 1 % cene surove nafte pri “normalnih cenah” nafte (okrog 60 $/bl) oziroma pol odstotka cene pri povišanih cenah nafte (okrog 100 $/bl). Ta pristojbina ne bo imela omembe vrednega vpliva na cene nafte. Iran vztraja pri tej pristojbini iz treh glavnih razlogov:

  1. s tem pridobi de iure priznano pristojnost nad Hormuško ožino in s tem de facto kontrolira kontrolira pomemben segment globalnega trga z nafto (20 %), s čimer ima vzvod, s katerim lahko prisiljuje ZDA in zahodne države, da proti njemu ne uvedejo sankcij (kontrola na d Hormuško ožino je za Iran podobna posedovanju jedrskega orožja);
  2. na ta način lahko zagotovi plačilo vojaških reparacij za škodo, ki sta jo povzročila ZDA in Izrael z nesprovociranim in nezakonitim napadom na Iran; iluzorno je pričakovati, da bi Trump in ZDA sicer psristala na kakršnokoli plačilo vojne škode, pri tem pa pristojbino dejansko plačujejo porabniki nafte izven ZDA;
  3. s tem Iran lahko doseže odpravo finančnih sakncij proti svojim bankam, saj morajo plačniki pristojbino sprocesirati prek iranskih bank. 

Seveda Iran s pobiranjem pristojbine sebi zagotovi stalne fiskalne prihodke na letni ravni okrog 100 milijard dolarjev, vendar je to zgolj koristna eksternalija ob zagotovitvi prvih treh točk.

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Iran is well aware of the difficulty of getting Trump to agree to pay war reparations, and it is also aware of his manipulation in lifting the freeze on frozen funds.

Trump canceled the previous agreement in 2018 because he doesn’t want to pay; this is a stingy, domineering man who wants to take only and will never pay anything to anyone else under any circumstances.

Collecting the fees ensures the following:

  • Obtaining massive reparations
  • Collecting an amount equivalent to the frozen funds in Western banks
  • Forcing America and its allies to lift sanctions on Iranian banks and the Iranian financial system, which is exclusively authorized to collect those fees.

Iran has stated that only its banks are authorized to collect transit revenues from the Strait, so every country that wants passage must deal with the Iranian financial system.

And this means there are no real financial sanctions, and the world will be forced to deal with Iranian banks despite the United States.

The Strait of Hormuz and the issue of fees are a matter of life or death for the Iranians; it is the gateway through which they will open up to the world, and it is the financial resource through which they rebuild the infrastructure.

Therefore, even if America pays the frozen funds or even lifts the sanctions, the Iranians will not abandon collecting the fees; this is the only guarantee that preserves for them a resource alongside oil with which they compensate for the losses of 47 years of siege.

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