V Bloombergu imajo dobro špekulacijo o možnosti, da se 9. maja letos v Moskvi, ob 80. letnici dogovora o postvojni ureditvi v Jalti, srečajo predsedniki Rusije, Kitajske in ZDA in se dogovorijo o novi mednarodni ureditvi za 21. stoletje. Evrope na tem sestanku ne bo. No, če smo pošteni, je tudi v Jalti leta 1945 ni bilo. Evropa je bila tedaj porušen subjekt, o katerem so namesto nje odločali predsedniki Sovjetske zzveze, ZDA in V. Britanije. Tudi na Jalti 2.0, če se bo res zgodila 9. maja letos, bo Evropa samo – gospodarsko uničen in politično irelevanten – subjekt, o katerem se bodo dogovarjali in dogovorili voditelji treh velesil.

Evropi v 80 letih ni uspelo postati politična velesila. Gospodarsko moč, ki jo je izgradila po drugi svetovni vojni prek projekta carinske unije, je uničila z zgrešenim in ponesrečenim projektom evra, z napačnim fiskalnim okvirjem od leta 2010 naprej, z zgrešeno energetsko politiko in s stavo na ameriške halucinacije, da lahko prek Ukrajine oslabijo in uničijo Rusijo.

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It’s hard to believe now, but US, British, French, Polish and Ukrainian troops all marched in Moscow alongside their Russian counterparts on Red Square in 2010 to mark the 65th anniversary of the end of World War II.

Vladimir Putin watched NATO troops join that May 9 military parade alongside the German and Chinese leaders. Dmitry Medvedev, then Russia’s president, spoke of a common desire to defend peace.

Fast forward to 2025, almost three years into Russia’s war on Ukraine, and Putin’s preparing to host the 80th anniversary parade. He has invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to join him on Red Square — and Xi agreed.

Will Putin also invite US President Donald Trump? And would Trump go?

The temptation would be strong.

Trump’s gearing up to push Russia and Ukraine into a quick deal to end the war, and yesterday hailed Putin’s release of an American from prison as evidence of Russian “goodwill.” Success before May 9 would let him travel to Moscow as the president who restored peace in Europe.

Putin may have bigger plans in mind. He has long sought a modern version of the 1945 Yalta agreement, when the Big Three of Winston Churchill, Joseph Stalin and Franklin D. Roosevelt met in Crimea and carved out postwar spheres of influence in Europe.

Putin argued last year for a new “Eurasian security system” stretching from Europe to China. With Xi and Trump in Moscow, he’d have a chance to form a new Big Three of strongmen rulers.

Trump covets Greenland, Canada and the Panama Canal in the western hemisphere. Xi wants to control Taiwan and the South China Sea. Putin aims to restore Russia’s dominance of Europe and a superpower status that was lost with the Soviet Union’s collapse.

Trump says he gets on well with Xi and Putin, and a pact to reshape global security might appeal to all of them.

It would also strike fear into many of the US’s democratic allies in Europe and Asia.

Vir: Bloomberg Newsletter