Z Niallom Fergusonom, ultralibertarnim, ultrakonzervativnim in ultraameriškim britanskim zgodovinarjem, ki je miselno ostal zamrznjen v času Fukuyamine iluzije o koncu zgodovine, nima smisla izgubljati časa. Ker ga poganja ideološki drive, ne pa objektivna analiza, se v sklepanju vedno zmoti. Prav zato je zanimivo prebrati njegovo mnenje, zakaj v hladni vojni med ZDA in Kitajsko Evropa nima nobene izbire – mora se podrediti ZDA, ker ni sposobna zagotoviti svoje strateške varnosti in strateške avtonomije. In ko Ferguson tako lepo izpostavi evropsko dilemo, se zdi, da bi Evropi prišel prav šok z novo izvolitvijo Trumpa. Da bi se končno osamosvojila in začela s koraki za izgradnjo lastne varnostne arhitekture in strateške gospodarske avtonomije. S 450 milijonov prebivalcev si Evropa to nedvomno lahko in mora privoščiti.

Q. You mentioned the Taiwan issue. Faced with the threat of China, do you think the European Union should align itself closely with the U.S. or rather seek its own position?

A. We’re in a cold war. Two superpowers — the United States and China — are competing ideologically, technologically, in economic terms, in geopolitical terms. There are only two, because superpower status today is about AI, quantum computing, all of those things. And for Europeans, it’s a complete delusion to think that there’s a choice. Because this continent relies on the United States for its security. It’s unbelievable to me that Europeans think they have a choice. And yet they do. If the United States elects Donald Trump, and he withdraws from NATO, then Europeans are going to discover what strategic autonomy means.

Q. What does it mean?

A. It will turn out to be a very unpleasant thing, because it will cost a lot of money. It will be very hard to achieve in any kind of realistic time frame. And then Europeans will find themselves quite exposed, not just to China, but to China’s proxy Russia. The situation is really quite a bit worse than most Europeans recognize. If Ukraine is defeated, then Russia’s at the borders of Europe. And Europe, if it doesn’t have the United States, has to find a huge amount of money. And not only money, but the capability to arm itself, which it currently lacks. All this can happen quite quickly.

Q. What do you think needs to be done?

A. I think we have to be very, very, ready to work extremely hard to keep the transatlantic lives together. Because if we’re divided, we’re in a much weaker position. Currently, there’s a good deal of doubt on both sides. We’re very bad at imagining defeat. It’s really one of our big myopic problems. We can’t quite picture the day Kyiv falls. We can’t quite picture what it’s like if Trump gives a speech in 2025, and he says the United States is leaving. We can’t picture [Chinese President] Xi Jinping in Taipei after a successful takeover. And all of these things can happen. We might have a rude awakening.

Vir: El Pais