Nekdanji predsednik nemškega orjaka Allianz, Mohamed A. El-Erian, pravi, da so države širom sveta zaradi dveh dogodkov izgubile vero v ZDA kot voditelja sveta. Najprej zaradi nemoči zahodnih držav pod patronatom ZDA, da bi učinkovito sankcionirale Rusijo, in drugič, ameriška vloga v vojni med Izraelom in Hamasom naj bi za mnoge države razkrila votlost zaveze Zahoda, da podpira osnovne človekove pravice in izpostavila nedosledno spoštovanje mednarodnega prava. Vendar se svet z zatonom ZDA kot hegemona po mnenju El-Eriana ne premika v smeri novega svetovnega reda pod vodstvom Kitajske, pač pa v globalni kaos brez reda. Zato naj bi bilo ključno, da se ohranijo sedanje multilateralne inštitucije, pri čemer pa bi bilo treba reformirati njihovo vodenje v korist držav globalnega Juga.

Zveni sicer razumno, vendar kdo bo prevzel vlogo države, ki bo koordinirala reformiranje multilateralnih inštitucij, kot so OZN, IMF, SB, WTO? ZDA to prav gotovo niso, saj v zadnjih letih sistematično razgrajujejo moč teh inštitucij z nespoštovanjem oziroma nasprotovanjem njihovim deklaracijam (OZN), z blokiranjem imenovanj ključnih organov teh institucij (WTO) itd. Bo Kitajska prevzela vlogo ZDA pri koordinaciji ali bo raje oblikovala lastne multilateralne zveze (BRICS, SCO) in institucije (Asian Development Bank)? Zaenkrat kaže na slednje, s tem pa na drsenje sveta v globalni kaos podobnega tipa kot v začetku 1930-ih let. Iz slednjega kaosa se je rodila 2. svetovna vojna. Tokrat pa tudi ne kaže bistveno drugače.

__________

But a new international order is unlikely to emerge anytime soon. Instead, as more and more countries decide to self-insure by building alternatives to the Western-led order, the global economy risks increasing fragmentation, eroding America’s leadership role and accelerating a system-wide shift toward disorder.

To be sure, doubts about the Western-led economic order began long before 2023. Over just the past 15 years, its credibility and smooth functioning have been undermined by policy missteps that resulted in a series of disruptions. These include the 2008 global financial crisis, the growing weaponization of trade and investment sanctions, the unequal distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, central banks’ mischaracterization of inflation as “transitory,” and the consequences of the banks’ aggressive interest-rate hikes.

The multilateral system has been further undermined by its inability to tackle urgent global challenges such as climate change and overwhelming debt in the Global South. As these pressures intensify, Western-dominated institutions are increasingly viewed as ineffective and insufficiently inclusive.

Two developments, in particular, have fueled widespread frustration with the Western-led order this year. First, as is now widely documented, Russia has managed to maintain active trading relationships despite ostensibly suffocating sanctions, which restricted the country’s ability to use the SWIFT international payment system and capped the price of its oil exports. Although the ad hoc trade and payment schemes devised by Russian technocrats are far from cost-effective, they have enabled Russia to minimize the damage to its domestic economy and finance its war effort in Ukraine.

Moreover, in its efforts to circumvent Western sanctions, Russia has received support from a growing (albeit still relatively small) group of countries. The limited success of the sanctions regime has eroded the belief that countries around the world have no choice but to be part of the Western-led economic order.

Second, America’s role in the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas has, for many countries, exposed the hollowness of the West’s stated commitment to upholding basic human rights and their inconsistent compliance with international law.

During my recent travels, I met many individuals who reiterated UN Secretary-General António Guterres’s stark warnings about the lack of protections for non-combatants in Gaza, the collapse of Gaza’s health system, the record death toll among United Nations’ humanitarian staff, and the imminent threats of widespread starvation, disease, civil disorder, and another mass displacement of civilians.

As US President Joe Bidenrecently acknowledged, millions of people around the world now believe that Israel’s response to Hamas’s mass murder of Israeli citizens on October 7 has gone too far, with Israel losing international support. At the most recent UN General Assembly vote on a ceasefire, 153 countries voted in favor and only ten against, with 23 abstentions.

A growing number of countries have lamented the impunity with which Israel has been allowed to ignore international law and bomb civilians, including thousands of women and children. Many are horrified by the warnings of Philippe Lazzarini, Commissioner-General of the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, who has repeatedly described the current state of Gaza as “hell on Earth.”

As the humanitarian crisis in Gaza continues to escalate, several countries have expressed concern that the US, by failing to restrain its closest ally, is inadvertently enabling it. The Biden administration’s decision to bypass Congress to deliver more military aid to Israel, just one day after the US vetoed a UN Security Council resolution calling for a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza, has reinforced that perception.

Regardless of one’s position on these developments, they have called into question the effectiveness and legitimacy of the Western-led international order and risk accelerating the ongoing transition from a unipolar to a multipolar global economy. As middle powers increasingly assert themselves on the world stage, they will encourage smaller Western-aligned countries to contemplate the prospect of becoming “swing states.”

Western powers must confront this threat head-on. While undoing the damage that has already been done will take time, political leaders should focus on mitigating the risk of further fragmentation and forestall a rapid descent into international disorder by strengthening the existing multilateral architecture. This effort should start by reinvigorating previous reform initiatives within key institutions, starting with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The primary focus should be on voice and representation, dismantling outdated appointment processes that benefit Western interests, and modernizing operational procedures.

These reforms are crucial to the Western-led order that has served the world well since the end of World War II. Should the current international framework be allowed to fail, it will not be replaced by a new system anchored by China but by more global disorder. Such an outcome would hurt everyone in the short term. It would also inhibit our collective ability to tackle the complex and growing long-term challenges we face.

Vir: Mohamed A. El-Erian, Project Syndicate