Nemški premik v skrajno desno (k AfD ali še bolj desno – glejte spodaj rezultate zadnje raziskave, kako se je readikalizirala nemška sredina) ni zgolj zasluga sedanje Scholzeve opravilno nesposobne mavrične koalicije, pač pa so temelje postavile že velike koalicije nekdanje kanclerke Merklove. Če kdo misli, da lahko v državo pripelje 2 milijona migrantov, ki nikoli ne bodo delali in se nikoli ne bodo asimilirali, da lahko javno spodbuja woke in LGBT agendo kot nekaj superiornega in na kar je treba biti tako ponosen, da paradiraš po cesti, da lahko dve desetletji vodi protisocialne politike, da lahko vodi neodgovorno energetsko politiko, ki zapira zanesljive in čiste nuklearke, eksperimentira s sončnicami in vetrnicami in tako ljudem podvoji cene elektrike, da lahko prepove ogrevanje na plin in avtomobile na dizel etc. in da s tem ne bo zrevoltiral ljudi, in to konzervativno racionalnih Nemcev, je politično infantilen. Kazen bo prišla na naslednjih volitvah.

Za nesposobno mavrično Scholzevo koalicijo nihče ne bo jokal, prav tako bi bil na mestu premik k spoštovanju tradicionalnih vrednot in k spodbujanju družin in rodnosti, problem je premik v skrajno desno. Ko bodo po ulicah spet hodili črnosrajčniki in preganjali mavričaste in drugače drugačne.

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It was not a corrupt conspiracy and a dysfunctional constitution that swept the Nazis to power in 1933. It was centrist coalitions that pursued austerity in the years before. German political parties today have drawn the wrong conclusions from the breakdown of the Weimar Republic. By refusing to enter coalitions with the AfD, they are repeating exactly the same mistake their predecessors did in the early 1930s. They are only looking at 1933, when it was already too late. The political error occurred in the years before.

Here is some high-quality evidence that the political centre in Germany is opening up to the far-right. Its latest comes from the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, a political foundation funded by the SPD. The Mitte-Studie, literally the study of the centre, is conducted every two years with a statistical detail that far exceeds any polls. It shows a dramatic lurch to the right amongst voters that used to support centrist parties.  

The population in this study is limited to a group defined as the political centre, not in terms of voting behaviour, but income and social position: society’s middle ground. Its lack of representativeness is a strength. The headline result of this study is that the number of people within the political centre that hold extreme right-wing views has gone up from 2-3% two years ago to 8% now. In addition to this, there is 20% of the population that falls into a grey area, people who are not oriented towards democracy, but who are not fully paid-up members of a particular right-wing ideology. What matters is not the headline number, but the relative shifts. This 28% is the group from which the AfD recruits, plus its own core supporters, many of whom would naturally fall outside the classification of the political centre. We have put the AfD’s potential support at around one third of the entire electorate. These data suggest that the total potential might be even higher. If you wanted to relate these data to polling numbers, we would read this as follows: of those who used to support the political centre, 28% are open to supporting extremist parties on the right. Not all of them support the AfD, but many do. 

The study identifies a rise in antisemitism, white supremacy, extreme nationalism, and other features one could identify with the far-right. An important shift that took place over the last two years is that people are no longer embarrassed to reveal their far-right attitudes if they hold them. Here is another snapshot: 6% want the Führer back, 16% hate foreigners, and 34% believe that immigrants come to Germany to exploit the welfare system. Another 38% believe in conspiracy theories. 

We are not surprised to see this. If you keep on governing with grand coalitions, don’t be surprised that people that used to support you shift to the extremes. That is especially so if you elevate the principle of kicking the can down the road as the principle by which you govern. The more you double down with grand coalitions, the worse it gets. The AfD is now polling at 21-22%. This level makes it progressively harder for the centrist parties to form coalitions.

Vir: Eurointelligence