Kot sem zapisal že po prvih dneh ukrajinske ofenzive, je tisti, ki je ukrajinske sile poslal v samomorilsko ofenzivo, Ukrajini naredil usodno medvedjo uslugo – obsodil jo je na konec. Ukrajinska ofenziva že pred začetkom brez premoči v zraku ni imela niti teoretičnih možnosti za uspeh, kar so zahodni analitiki vedeli. Po dobrih štirih tednih te ofenzive, po uničenih  700+ oklepnih vozilih ter pobiti tretjini armade, ki je bila namenjena za to ofenzivo, je to dejstvo na žalost samo še zapečateno s krvjo. Ukrajinska ofenziva je čisti samomor. Kot da bi se celotna armada postavila na vrh skalnega previsa in se na ukaz vrgla v prepad.

Absolutno ni jasno, zakaj nekdo sili Ukrajince v ta samomor. Ta nekdo namreč, paradoksalno ali zavestno, dela vse, da pomaga Rusiji ne samo zmagati to vojno, ampak Ukrajino zbrisati z zemljevida. Kajti s tem, ko ukrajinske sile dan za dnem sili v samomorilske akcije, v katerih dnevno umre v povprečju 500 mladih ukrajinskih fantov, bo uničil celotno tretjo ukrajinsko armado. In ukrajinsko vodstvo ne bo imelo več zadostnih sil, ko bo nato ruska vojska prešla v ofenzivo – iz juga, vzhoda in iz severja (Belorusije). Kajti natanko to se bo zgodilo. Kot je Putin napovedal pred dvema tednoma v Sankt Petersburgu, bo rusko vodstvo sledilo poteku ukrajinske ofenzive in analiziralo stanje ter se nato odločilo za nadaljnje korake. V praksi to pomeni, da bodo ruske sile počakale, da se ukrajinska tretja armada iztroši na postavljenih neprebojnih ruskih frontnih linijah in ko bo popolnoma zdesetkana, bodo ruske sile krenile v svojo ofenzivo.

Spodaj je dober intervju z Johnom Mearsheimerjem, ki zelo jasno pove, zakaj Ukrajina nima niti teoretičnih možnosti za zmago. Nobena nova oprema (od lovcev F-16 do raket srednjega dosega) Ukrajini ne more pomagati. In nobena ameriška vojno-hujskaška propaganda, pa naj bo še tako masovno razširjena po vseh glavnih zahodnih medijih, ne more preglasiti očitnega – v tej vojni izčrpavanja Ukrajina niti teoretično ne more zmagati. In zahodne države, tudi če se neposredno angažirajo s svojimi silami v Ukrajini, ji pri preprečitvi poraza ne morejo pomagati. Ker nimajo več dovolj lastnega orožja (ker so vojaška skladišča izpraznjena, vsa zahodna vojaška industrija pa ni sposobna v enem letu proizvesti toliko streliva, kot ga ruska vojska porabi v dveh tednih), ker se je ruska vojaška tehnika izkazala kot superiorna in ker je Rusija absolutna jedrska velesila, ki ima povrhu še nadzvočne rakete kot nosilce jedrskih konic, proti katerim zahodne države nimajo obrambe.

Edina rešitev za Ukrajino, da je ostane vsaj še zahodna polovica, so mirovna pogajanja. Problem pa je, da se Putin zaveda ruske premoči in da je nihče ne more zaustaviti. Problem je, da ga v tej situaciji nihče ne more spraviti za pogajalsko mizo.

Najbolj depresivno je vedeti, kaj se bo zgodilo (in kar vemo že od 5. marca lani), pa ne moreš narediti nič, da bi to preprečil, ker tisti, ki bi to lahko preprečili, tega ne želijo narediti.

Professor John Mearsheimer warns Glenn Greenwald that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will result in significant casualties due to the Russian army’s overwhelming artillery advantage, air superiority, and the undermanned and undertrained Ukrainian forces.

Professor Mearsheimer elaborates on why he thinks F-16s and ATACMS will not change the course of the war. He also mentions that the US and NATO lack the manufacturing capacity to address the current artillery disparity between Russia and Ukraine:

“This counter offensive was suicidal… The main units that NATO trained up were clobbered. And in fact, other units were clobbered as well. The Ukrainians didn’t stand a chance. I think it was remarkably irresponsible of the West, especially the United States, to push the Ukrainians to launch this offensive…

The fact is that the Ukrainians have a significant disadvantage in terms of artillery, which is the most important weapon on the battlefield. The Russians have probably a five to one seven to one, maybe even 10 to one advantage in artillery, which is the king of battle.

Furthermore, the Russians control the air, the Russians are allowed to bring airpower to bear on the Ukrainian side of the battlefield. So not only are the Russians pounding, the Ukrainians with artillery, they’re pounding the Ukrainians, from the air with all sorts of smart bombs, and doing egregious damage to the attacking forces.

Furthermore, the Ukrainian forces are not well trained. You can’t take a bunch of Ukrainians and train them for a couple months in Germany or Britain, and expect them to launch a blitzkrieg like the Germans did in May of 1940. It takes years to produce an army that can do that. The Ukrainian army doesn’t have that kind of training.

And furthermore, NATO only trained up nine brigades, only nine brigades. The Ukrainian army is comprised of about 60 Brigades, only nine of them were trained up by NATO. And those brigades not surprising were cut up badly in the initial attacks in early June. So I think there is no chance that the Ukrainians are going to punch through the Russian defenses and score a victory of any significance. And instead, what’s going to happen here is the Ukrainians are going to suffer enormous casualties…

The problem is we can’t help the Ukrainians win. The idea that F-16s are a magical weapon, it’s not a serious argument. We’re not going to give them that many F-16s anyway. We’re going to give them our second tier F-16s. Furthermore, they don’t have pilots experienced enough at flying F-16s to train them and send them into battle quickly.

And most importantly, from my view, the Russians almost have the most sophisticated ground based air defense in the world. The Russians will have little difficulty shutting down those handful of F-16s that we give the Ukrainians. The idea that F-16s or even ATACMS these missiles we’re talking about giving to the Ukrainians are going to turn the tide is not a serious argument…

The fact is, we do not have the manufacturing capability to produce enough artillery to redress the existing imbalance in artillery between the Russians and the Ukrainians. The Russians, in contrast, have a significant manufacturing capability when it comes to weaponry, and they’re pumping out artillery rounds. At a remarkably rapid pace, we can’t do that we don’t have the manufacturing capability.

And it’s going to take us a year or two, maybe even three to spin up that capability. And in the meantime, the Ukrainians are in deep trouble… Not only do the Russians have a major league advantage in artillery, in tanks for that matter, but they also have a major league advantage in population size, which means the number of potential soldiers.

Furthermore, they control the skies, they have a tremendous advantage in air power, and the F-16 is not going to rectify that. So I don’t see how it’s possible for Ukraine to win this war. I think they’re doomed. I think that Ukrainians have foolishly picked a fight with a country that has much more military capability and will therefore win.

Vir: Twitter