Spodaj je dobra analiza možnega razvoja dogodkov v Ukrajini (“Destruction Of Its Third Army – Issues To Negotiate“) s strani nekdanjega ameriškega obveščevalnega analitika, ki piše (iz vidika skladnosti med poročanim stanjem, napovedmi in kasneje dejansko izkazanim stanjem) zelo realističen blog Moon of Alabama (MoA). Lahko se z njegovo analizo strinjamo ali ne, to je naša osebna stvar, velja pa zapisano resno vzeti v obzir. Če povzamem, MoA pravi:

1. Ruske sile so lani do konca poletja uničile prvo ukrajinsko armado (večinoma z zahodno opremo in trenirano s strani zahodnih inštruktorjev, nakar so ukrajinske sile iz mobilizirancev in vzhodne opreme naredile novo, drugo armado, ki so jo ruske sile uničile pozimi (Bahmut). Zdaj ruske sile uničujejo tretjo armado, ki naj bi naredila protiofenzivo. Ukrajini je zmanjkalo za boj sposobnih moških, zahodu pa opreme (njihova vojaška skladišča so izpraznjena), zato bo Ukrajina težko sestavila še četrto armado za nadaljevanje vojne.
2. Ob tem razvoju dogodkov zahodnim donatorjem (EU države) in investitorjem (ZDA) preostane samo, da pošljejo v Ukrajino lastne sile ali pa “razglasijo zmago in gredo domov“. Zelo malo je verjetnosti, da bodo zahodne države v Ukrajino poslale lastne sile, ker bi to vodilo v totalno vojno z Rusijo in jedrsko eskalacijo, zgodilo pa bi se jim enako kot se je ukrajinskim armadam.
3. Če je bil namen ukrajinske protiofenzive, kot pravijo na Zahodu, da Ukrajina zavzame nazaj čim več ozemelj, s čimer bi imela boljše karte za pogajalsko mizo, pa utegne voditi v popolno nasprotje tega, in sicer, da utegne še ojačati Putinovo pozicijo na pogajanjih.
4. Na pogajanjih bi Putin lahko zahteval (kot pišejo številni zahodni analitiki od Mearscheimerja naprej) ostale 4 ukrajinske regije (vzhodno od Dnjepra ter Odesso), varnostna zagotovila v obliki odpoklica ameriških raketnih sistemov iz Poljske in Romunije ter da Nato ne bo imel svojih oporišč v državah, ki mejijo na Rusijo, zakonsko ureditev denacifikacije Ukrajine in sodno preiskavo pokola v Odesi.
5. Putin bi lahko zahteval popolno odpravo sankcij. V vmesnem času je oblikoval nov, svoj trgovinski sistem in novo zvezo držav, zaradi česar zahodnih trgov Rusija ne potrebuje več (obratno je, zahodne države bistveno bolj potrebujejo ruski plin in naftne derivate, poglejte si včerajšnje jadikovanje nemškega ministra za gospodarstvo Habecka).
6. Vprašanje je le še, kako hitro bodo na zahodu lahko prebavili spremembo od propagande, da “Ukrajina zmaguje” do priznavanja realnosti na terenu in razmerja sil. Hitreje kot bodo, manj ljudi bo umrlo.

Priznam, tudi jaz še nisem uspel prebaviti tega zgornjega. Toda bolj kot razmišljam o tem, bolj jasno postaja, da bo po tem “incidentu v Ukrajini” težko kdo spravil Putina za pogajalsko mizo, brez da bi dobil zgornja zagotovila. Kitajska je sicer edina, ki lahko prepriča Putina, da se sploh pogaja. Toda tudi Kitajska je zainteresirana za takšna varnostna zagotovila za Rusijo, saj bo to v marsičem “model za ureditev vprašanja Tajvana”.

During the spring and summer of 2022 the Russian forces destroyed the regular Ukrainian pre-war army. It was replaced with Soviet era material from east European states and Ukrainian draftees. By the beginning of this year that second army had also been destroyed.

What we currently witness is the demilitarization of Ukraine’s third army.

As I detailed back in January:

The stocks of two complete armies have by now been destroyed in Ukraine. The resources for a smaller third one will be delivered in the next rounds of ‘western’ equipment deliveries during the next months. Russia will dully destroy Ukraine’s third army just as it has destroyed the first and second one. It is doubtful that the ‘West’ has enough material left to provide Ukraine with a fourth one.

That then leaves only two options. Send in ‘western’ armies with the equipment they still have or declare victory and go home.

I do not sense any appetite in the U.S. or Europe to send their soldiers into Ukraine. It is quite obvious that their fates would be no different from the Ukrainian ones.

That leaves negotiations as the only option. There will be a lot of hesitation as the price Russia will ask for to stop the war will be high:

For starters, will Russia insist on securing the rights to all territory east of the Dnieper River and on a special status for Odessa? I think so. Odessa would no longer be ruled by Ukraine. I also would expect Russia to demand (non-negotiable) the arrest and prosecution of those responsible for the murder of 42 Russian speaking Ukrainians in 2014 who sought refuge in the Trade Unions House.I also would expect that Russia will demand the dismantling of NATO Aegis missile systems in Poland and Romania and a ban on U.S. or NATO troops being posted in countries that share a border with Ukraine. In light of Russia’s stated goal of de-nazification I would not be surprised if Russia demands the laws of Ukraine be changed and that Nazi-affiliated parties and symbols be banned.

I believe that Russia will want all historic Russian regions, at least those which Lenin and Khrushchev for whatever reasons gave to Ukraine, back under Russian control. Russia will also demand the lifting of all sanctions against it.

The West is failing to grasp the reality that Russia believes it is winning the war in Ukraine and that it is not suffering economic or political damage at home. And, when you factor in the international arena, the war has proven to be a boon for Russia’s efforts to help create a new international financial/trade system that circumvents Washington’s control. In other words, Russia has little incentive to entertain negotiations that would require Russian concessions.

It will still need some time for the ‘western’ public to move from swallowing ‘Ukraine is wining’ propaganda towards acknowledging reality. It unfortunately will also still take more Ukrainian and Russian losses.

But I strongly believe, maybe too wishfully, that the end of the war is now coming into sight.

Vir: Moon of Alabama