Odgovor je seveda, da je energija vetra in sonca izjemno draga, kar pa njeni zagovorniki strašansko prikrivajo prek uporabe koncepta “poenotenih stroškov energije” (Levelized cost of energy oz. LCOE). Problem tega koncepta je, da meri zgolj mejne stroške enote proizvodnje posameznega vira energije, ne upošteva pa celotnih stroškov proizvodnje električne energije iz posameznega vira. In sicer, LCOE koncept ne upošteva:

(a) potrebe po rezervni energiji, shranjevanju in stopnjah rezerv za ohranjanje zanesljivosti sistema,

(b) vrednosti električne energije, dobavljene v različnih obdobjih dneva ali leta, in

(c) potrebe po prekomernem povečanju vetrnih in sončnih zmogljivosti za zadovoljitev povpraševanja v močno dekarboniziranih sistemih.

Primer:

Texas wind capacity factors averaged 32% in December 2022. But that doesn’t mean that wind provided steady power at 32% of installed capacity; as shown on the left, Texas wind generation varied from a low of 5% of capacity to a peak of 70% during the month. Why this matters: LCOE is so blissfully unaware of reality that it is calculated the exact same way whether Texas wind capacity factors are 32% for every hour of December, or if they average 32% but vary from 5%-70%. This is preposterous since in the latter scenario, backup thermal power/storage needs are much higher than in the former. LCOE is the cocktail napkin of energy math.

What actually happened? On Dec 23, temperatures dropped to 13⁰-28⁰F vs average levels of 45⁰F, causing electricity demand to spike to its highest level ever while renewable output collapsed. Rising electricity demand was met by natural gas output doubling. Even if Texas wind and solar capacity were 5x (!!) larger, the need for gas fired power that day would only have been 20% lower. In other words, a massive gap that only backup power could fill, none of which is accounted for in LCOE. What about energy storage? Low wind conditions lasted for 3 days, in which case many billions of dollars of 4-6 hour storage would have been needed instead.

Več v:

Michael Cembalest, “Growing Pains: The Renewable Transition in Adolescence”. J.P. Morgan, 2023