Tole velja bolj podrobno raziskati. In sicer, kakšen učinek so imele sankcije proti Rusiji na proces kolapsiranja druge največje švicarske banke Credit Suisse (CS)? CS je zamrznila za 17.6 milijard CHF (po nekaterih podatkih 20 milijard CHF) sredstev, povezanih z ruskimi osebami oziroma eno tretjino vseh “ruskih sredstev” v švicarskih bankah. V drugem četrtletju lani se je začel odliv depozitov (8 milijard) in se pospešil v tretjem četrtletju (na 14 milijard) ter nato v četrtem eksplodiral (na 120 milijard CHF). Premoženjska sklada Archegos in Greensil sta propadla že leto prej (prvo četrtletje) in nista imela vpliva na odliv depozitov v 2022. Nasprotno, ti so se neto povečevali naslednja tri četrtletja.

Vprašanje je, v kolikšni meri so na ta eksodus depozitov vplivale sankcije proti Rusiji. Prvi je neposredni učinek: zamrznitev ruskih sredstev povzroči preplah med ostalimi ultra bogatimi posamezniki, da se utegne kaj podobnega zgoditi tudi njim, če bi njihova matična država zapadla pod režim sankcij. Ostalo pa so posredni učinki sankcij: na porast inflacije, posledično restriktivno monetarno politiko z dvigom obrestnih mer, kar je zmanjšalo vrednost zavarovanja v obliki državnih obveznic. Nakar se zgodi “Silicon Valley Bank efekt“, ko depozitarji zapadejo v paniko, da svojih nezavarovanih depozitov ne bodo več mogli dvigniti in začnejo panično prenašati depozite v druge banke.

Zakaj je ta zgodba pomembna? Pomembna je, ker če se je proces odlivanja depozitov začel in nato pospešil zaradi neposrednega in posrednih učinkov sankcij proti Rusiji, so lahko prizadete tudi druge velike banke z neugodno strukturo naložb na aktivni strani bilance. Lahko se zgodi leto 2008 oziroma “Lehman Brothers trenutek“, ko nihče ni znal predvideti, kako gromozanski domino učinek ima lahko propad relativno nepomembne investicijske banke. Ves bančni in nato finančni sektor se je namreč okužil zaradi nenadnega šoka negotovosti in izgube zaupanja ob propadu Lehman Brothers, ko so si banke v trenutku prenehale med seboj posojati denar, medbančni denarni trg je zamrznil in začela se je velika finančna kriza. Prav zaradi tega danes centralne banke pumpajo v finančni sistem tisoče milijard dolarjev, evrov, funtov in jenov – da ne bi zmanjkalo likvidnosti in bi banke ohranile svojo kreditno aktivnost.

Tole spodaj velja vzeti resno in se pripraviti.

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Since Russia invaded Ukraine, the Swiss federal government has frozen assets of those with links to Russia and Belarus in Switzerland worth more than 7.5 billion francs ($8.1 billion). In addition, 15 properties were seized as a result of the adoption of EU sanctions.

Local banks are required to report deposits of non-sanctioned Russians of 100,000 francs or more to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco) and have pledged not to accept any more client funds above that amount.

Not Only Sanctioned Persons

According to Seco, around 7,500 business relationships and a total of 46.1 billion francs with a connection to Russia had been reported by mid-November.

Credit Suisse has frozen Russian assets of 17.6 billion francs, according to a report in the «Sonntagszeitung» (in German, behind paywall), corresponding to over a third of all reported Russian assets in Switzerland.

Vekselberg Without Access

Only about 4 billion francs of Russian assets at Credit Suisse assets originate from people on the sanctions list, according to the newspaper.

The remaining 13.6 billion francs are said to be partly from people such as Viktor Vekselberg, who has an account with Credit Suisse but cannot access it because of other sanctions.

UBS Less Affected

Funds of the Russian Central Bank or the Russian state could be affected, which are not sanctioned but de facto frozen.

At UBS, which is twice the size of Credit Suisse, the share of Russian funds affected amounts to 0.3 percent of invested assets in Global Wealth Management, according to a UBS spokeswoman. That percentage corresponds to $7.5 billion of assets. For the fourth quarter just ended, UBS no longer reported the share. However, it is likely to be lower than in the previous quarter.

Josef Ackermann Criticism

Recently, Josef Ackermann lent his voice to the discussion about Switzerland’s sanctions against Russia. He criticized Switzerland for allowing itself to be influenced too strongly by the interests of Brussels and Washington in its dealings with Russian assets. These interests are not congruent with those of Switzerland, he said.

Ackermann saw the rule of law and property rights at risk if Switzerland held individual citizens or Russian oligarchs generally responsible for the policies of the Russian government.

Devastating for the Financial Industry

According to Ackermann, confiscation of assets is a devastating step for the Swiss financial industry. In the future, citizens of other countries would have to expect that Switzerland would take similar action if other governments did something questionable under international law.

Vir: Finews.com