There has been a burst of optimism about the state of the world economy since the beginning of the year.  At the end of last year, the consensus of many economic forecasts was that the major economies were heading into a slump in 2023.  Most of the internatiol agencies were forecasting a slowdown in economic growth at best and at worst a contraction in national outputs of the major economies.  I too posted a forecast for 2023 as “the impending slump”.

But now the mood has changed.  The consensus view is that the G7 economies (with the sorry exception of the UK) will avoid a slump this year.  Sure, there will be slowdown compared to 2022, but the major economies are going to achieve a ‘soft landing’ or even no landing at all, but just motor on, if at a low rate of growth.  The international agencies have upgraded their…