Cenovna kapica na plin je joke. In dobro, da je tako

Glede na to, kako se je kuhala ta juha s plinsko cenovno kapico, ki ne ustreza vodilni državi v EU (Nemčiji) in  bi bila škodljiva tudi za slovensko industrijo, je bilo jasno, da ta čorba ne bo užitna. Glede na to, da so cenovni kapici nasprotovale najmočnejše države v EU, predlog ni imel nobene možnosti za uspeh, vendar pa je Evropska komisija po dolgih mesecih priprav predloga morala formalno od sebe dati nek predlog, da v javnosti ne bi izpadla kot brezzobi tiger. Zato je včeraj Evropska komisija predlagala omejitev veleprodajnih cen plina za mesec vnaprej na 275 evrov za megavatno uro. Zgornja meja pa bi veljala samo, če bi bile cene nad to ravnijo dva tedna in bi bile za več kot 58 evrov na MWh višje od povprečne cene utekočinjenega zemeljskega plina (UZP) za 10 dni.

Ta predlog je seveda joke, saj bi se cenovna kapica aktivirala zgolj v izjemno ekstremnih razmerah, ko bi cene plina zares eksplodirale in ostale na tej ravni 2 tedna in če ne bi bilo cenovno ugodne alternative s strani UZP. Ta kapica se ne bi aktivirala tudi letošnje poletje, ko so cene plina kratkoročno poskočile nad 300 evrov na MWh.

Plinska kapica 2022-11-23

Vir: Finance

Vendar je treba razumeti, zakaj je ta joke postavljen na tej ravni. Čeprav se plinska kapica za mnoge, ki ne razmišljajo, sliši dobro, pa je smiselna zgolj za države, ki imajo plinske alternative (denimo za Francijo in južne države EU, ki lahko plin nabavijo iz Alžirije ali Katarja ali imajo dovolj UZP terminalov). Plinska kapica pa je problematična za države, ki imajo velik delež industrije vezan na plin in ki nimajo prave plinske alternative, saj so bile preveč navezane na ruski plin. V primeru nizke plinske kapice, če ponudniki plina ne bi želeli dobavljati plina po tej administrativno nizki ceni plina, bi te države ostale brez plina in bi morale zaustaviti industrijo. Nemčija si tega ne more privoščiti. Tudi Slovenija ne.

Zato je dobro, da je Evropska komisija od sebe dala tak joke od predloga.

Financial Times je zadevo lepo povzel, čeprav tudi tam očitno ne razumejo, zakaj je nizka cenovna kapica na plin problematična za države, katerih industrija je (bila) odvisna od ruskega plina in ki nimajo kratkoročnih alternativ zanj:

“This is not a silver bullet,” EU energy commissioner Kadri Simson said as she announced the policy on Tuesday. “But [it] provides a powerful tool that we can use when we need it.”

However, critics labelled the plan almost useless.

Wholesale gas prices spiked to all-time highs above €300 per MWh — the equivalent of more than $500 a barrel in oil terms — over the summer after Russia cut supplies through its largest route to western Europe, the Nord Stream 1 line to Germany. Even in that instance, the cap would not have not have been triggered as prices only remained above €275 per MWh for around a week.

“It’s a joke . . . It is a proposal that won’t deliver anything useful for anyone even under the extreme scenario seen in August. This is a non-cap,” said Simone Tagliapetra, senior fellow at Brussels-based think-tank Bruegel.

“It seriously risks compromising trust in the Commission about the handling of the energy crisis,” he added.

Several diplomats from member states that support the price cap told the Financial Times that it was far too high for their governments to accept. One senior EU diplomat said setting it higher than €250 per MWh “is just another way of killing the cap”.

At least 15 EU countries including Spain and Greece had been pushing for the Commission to introduce a cap in the hope of keeping prices down for consumers over the winter and preventing social unrest.

Germany, Netherlands and Denmark are among member states that have remained sceptical about the safety of intervening in markets, arguing that lower prices would result in increased gas use and cause traders to send gas elsewhere.

If the cap does ever come into operation, Brussels said it will demand that EU capitals notify the commission of their efforts to prevent increases in energy consumption.

While European gas prices remain high — around €116 per MWh on Tuesday compared to typical costs of €5 to €35 per MWh over the past decade — fears of blackouts this winter have eased thanks to milder autumn weather and the ability of EU countries to fill up underground storage containers.

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