Prejšnji teden se je zgodil fenomen: Nemčiji ni uspelo prodati nove izdaje 5-letnih obveznic. Še več, kupci so bili pripravljeni kupiti manj kot polovico (47%) ponujenih obveznic. To se je Nemčiji, nekoč najbolj varnem finančnem zavetju, zgodilo prvič po letu 1999. Za razliko od tega so finančni vlagatelji razgrabili za 10 milijard evrov obveznic, ki jih je ponudila Francija. Pri tem je Francija, paradoksalno, za skoraj 50 odstotnih točk BDP bolj finančno zadolžena od Nemčije (javni dolg / BDP: DE 67% BDP; FR 113% BDP).

Kot poroča Reuters, naj bi finančne vlagatelje motila predvsem negotovost v Nemčiji zaradi energetske krize, saj ni jasno, kako bo Nemčija prestala to zimo brez ruskega plina in kako bo sfinancirala 200 milijard evrov težki paket za premostitev izpada ruskega plina in energetski prehod. V ta namen je nemški parlament prejšnji teden odpravil t.i. dolžniško zavoro (nemško verzijo fiskalnega pravila). Za razliko od tega se vlagateljem Francija zdi manj tvegana, saj je manj odvisna od ruskega plina in je hkrati zaradi več kot 50-odstotnega deleža električne energije iz zanesljivega jedrskega vira na varni strani glede dobav električne energije to zimo.

Izgleda, da so finančni trgi Scholzu dali podobno zaušnico kot pred mescem in pol Trussovi v V. Britaniji. Obakrat so ocenili, da sta njuna proračunska načrta na “shaky” temeljih.

Demand was soft at an auction of German 5-year government bonds on Tuesday, but other recent auctions have been “very, very, very bad”, said Michael Leister, head of rates strategy at Commerzbank, likening the situation to a “buyers’ strike”.

Germany’s finance agency sold just 1.78 billion euros ($1.77 billion) of a new 2029 bond earlier this month, for example, with total bids covering less than half of the 4-billion euro target.

The 0.47 bid-to-offer ratio at the sale was the lowest of any 7-year German bond sale and the second lowest of any of its auctions going back to 1999, according to a Reuters analysis of finance agency data. Germany kept 55% of the issuance on its own books, the second-largest amount on record.

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Analysts point to two factors. Firstly, the expected surge in German – and broader European – bond issuance as governments tackle the energy crisis, and secondly, central banks’ aggressive rate hikes and their plans to gradually back out of bond markets.

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Hit hard by its over-reliance on Russian energy, Germany intends to borrow particularly large amounts in the coming years, with Parliament last week voting to suspend the constitutional debt brake that limits new borrowing.

“It is a German story to a large degree, because Germany is the most exposed to the energy transition,” said Piet Haines Christiansen, chief analyst at Danske Bank.

France’s finance agency, in contrast, issued 10 billion euros of medium term bonds on Oct. 20 into strong demand.

Rising issuance comes as the ECB weighs plans to start shrinking its asset holdings via so-called quantitative tightening (QT).

“Both supply and QT are very new themes, they have just emerged in investors’ minds over the last four weeks or so,” said Sphia Salim, head of European rates strategy at Bank of America.

Vir: Reuters