Strinjam se s ključno poanto tega in povezanih člankov v Bloombergu: ruska de iure aneksacija zasedenih ozemelj v Ukrajini bo na preizkušnjo postavila zahodne “zaveznice” Ukrajine. Bodo “zaveznice” Ukrajini res dale sodobna letala in rakete dolgega dometa, kot zahteva Zelenski, ali pa se bodo v strahu pred morebitno nuklearno eskalacijo raje malce pomaknile nazaj in Ukrajini ob deklarativni politični podpori še naprej pošiljale “le” konvencionalno staro orožje iz skladišč?

Tole je zadnja mapa zasedenih ozemelj, ki plastično pokaže dejanske ruske cilje v Ukrajini (zasedba večinsko proruskih regij na ozemlju nekdanje Novorusije in kopenska povezava Rusije s Krimom) (vir je naveden na sliki):

President Vladimir Putin is moving to turn the narrative of his war in Ukraine on its head as sham referendums end today in four regions occupied by Russia.

The results are a foregone conclusion. They’ll pave the way for Putin to annex the areas as soon as this week and recast the invasion as a war in defense of territory he defines as Russian.

The implication is they’ll be covered by Russia’s nuclear umbrella, underlining Putin’s threat that he’s willing to use all available weapons to achieve his goals.

Key reading:

• Putin Raises Stakes on Ukraine’s Bid for More Powerful Weapons
• Russians Confront New Normal as Annexation Voting Continues
• Putin’s Conscripts Won’t Win His War But May Drag It Out
• Putin’s Mobilization Hits Russia’s Economy in Its Weak Spots
• Zelenskiy Says China’s Position on Russian Invasion ‘Ambiguous’
• Follow our rolling coverage of the war in Ukraine here.

His pronouncements will make no difference to Ukrainian forces fighting to reclaim more territory following this month’s successful counteroffensive.

Still, the risk is Putin’s hardening rhetoric makes Ukraine’s US and European allies even more cautious over weapons supplies, fearful of a nuclear confrontation with Russia.

Ukraine wants longer-range missiles, NATO-standard tanks and fighter jets to press its advantage. There’s no sign yet that its supporters are ready to deliver them.

Putin’s action also seeks to rally domestic opinion after his mobilization order brought home the reality of the war for more Russians. Thousands are fleeing to avoid the call-up and there’s widespread anger about appalling conditions for military draftees in videos on social media.

Pro-Kremlin commentators have started describing it as a modern Great Patriotic War to try to tap popular pride over the Soviet Union’s World War II victory and drown out unease about Putin’s faltering invasion. He still refuses to call the “special military operation” a war.

The annexations are taking place with the economic costs of the confrontation mounting for Europe as winter approaches.

Russia hopes they’ll persuade the US and Europe to back away, giving it an opportunity to regain the military initiative against Ukraine as 300,000 draftees enter the war.

For Ukraine’s allies, the land grab will be a test of their nerves to face Putin down.

Vir: Bloomberg