Konfuzija glede tega, ali smo že v recesiji in ali vanjo tonemo ali pa sploh ne, se nadaljuje. Na kratko, problem je v tem, da na eno strani večina kratkoročnih in visokofrekvenčnih indikatorjev kaže (tudi pri nas), da gospodarstva razvitih držav tonejo v recesijo, na drugi strani pa imamo rekordno nizke stopnje brezposelnosti, rekordne stopnje zaposlenosti in veliko pomanjkanje delovne sile.
Zato ta paradoks: “Who ever heard of a slump where there is full employment?“
Toda gospodarstvo se povsod ohlaja in (manjše) zaposlovanje bo sledilo z zamikom. Pomembno je še to, da se zmanjšuje pritisk na povpraševanje po surovinah in ključnih komponentah, zaradi česar so njihove cene začele upadati. To zmanjšano povpraševanje pa naj bi bila posledica strahu pred recesijo, ki so ga sprožile centralne banke z zviševanjem ali napovedovanjem zviševanja (ECB) obrestnih mer. Nekako se vrtimo v krogu kot pes, ki lovi svoj rep. Na delu je predvsem psihologija.
There is confusion among mainstream economists and policy-makers on whether the major economies are heading for a recession, or are already in a recession; or will avoid one altogether. The majority view, at least in the US, is the latter. This optimistic view argues that, while inflation rates are high, they will start to fall over the next year, enabling the Federal Reserve to avoid hiking its policy interest rates too much to the point where it could restrict investment and spending. At the same time, the US unemployment rate is very low and the ‘labour market’ remains strong. Such a scenario hardly suggests a recession. Who ever heard of a slump where there is full employment?, the argument goes.
On the other hand, the pessimistic view is that the major economies are already in a slump that will be eventually recognized. If we look at the models that measure…
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