Uspeh izraelskega programa cepljenja

Kot kaže izraelska analiza (Eran Segal et al, 2021), ki jo navaja The Economist, izraelska akcija cepljenje proti Covid-19 že daje dobre rezultate. Do sedaj je bilo v najbolj ranljivi starostni skupini 60+ z eno dozo cepljenih že skoraj 80% ljudi, dve dozi cepiva pa je prejelo 65% te skupine. V mlajši skupini 40-59 let je eno dozo prejela dobra polovica, dve dozi pa četrtina ljudi. Posledično naj bi med starejšimi od 60 let število hudih bolnišničnih primerov od vrhunca 19. januarja padlo za 26%, medtem ko se je v starostni skupini med 40 in 59, ki je manj precepljena, število pacientov v intenzivni negi povečalo za 13%.

To nakazuje na uspeh strategije hitrega cepljenja. Je pa seveda treba vzeti v obzir tudi dejstvo, da je po vzpostavitvi diplomatskih odnosov z ZA Emirati nekaj deset tisoč Izraelcev, ki so najbrž pretežno izven starostne skupine 60+, to izkoristilo za šoping v Dubaju, od koder naj bi prinesli bolj infektivne variante virusa. Potem pa je tu še problem izraelskih ortodoksnih verskih skupin ter palestinskega dela države, kjer se bodisi ne držijo lockdowna ali pa se cepljenje še ni začelo. Zaradi tega naj bi prišlo do dodatnega porasta okužb v manj precepljenih starostnih oziroma etnično-verskih skupinah.

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The effect is especially pronounced in hospital admissions: among people aged over 60 severe hospital cases have fallen by 26% since their peak on January 19th (see chart). In contrast, among those between 40 and 59—a group further back in the queue to be vaccinated—such severe cases have increased by 13%.

The vaccination programme, rather than the national lockdown enacted a week later (and strengthened on January 5th), is the likeliest cause. As Israel’s vaccination programme progresses down the generations, cases and hospitalisations are expected to fall further across the board. Even though Israel has been giving out doses to nearly 2% of its population every day for the past fortnight, on average, there remains some way to go: 65% of people over 60 have received both doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine; less than one-third of 30-year-olds have received their first.

Despite the encouraging falls in cases and hospital admissions attributed to vaccinations, political factors have hampered progress in other respects. Mr Netanyahu has been eager to highlight a diplomatic agreement he signed with the United Arab Emirates. Tens of thousands of Israelis flocked to Dubai for shopping holidays, and some returned with new, more infectious variants of covid-19. The government closed down its sole international airport on January 24th. And Palestinian authorities in the occupied West Bank and Gaza have barely started vaccinating their populations.

The new variants have spread quickly, largely because they are harder to contain and partly because some people have flouted lockdown restrictions. Of particular concern are ultra-Orthodox neighbourhoods (accounting for about 12% of Israel’s population), where schools and public gatherings have continued, and infection rates are double those of the rest of the country.

Vir: The Economist

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