Strah pred inflacijo je preživet, dajmo se ukvarjati z bolj pomembnimi, razvojnimi vprašanji

Brad DeLong iz univerze Berkley v odličnem komentarju pravi enako kot jaz študentom na predavanju o Phillipsovi krivulji (negativna relacija oz. trade-off med inflacijo in brezposelnostjo): Ja, v dveh turbulentnih desetletjih med 1970 in in 1990 je bila inflacija ključna nevarnost. In ko so države želele znižati inflacjo, so zaradi restriktivne monetarne politike morale žrtvovati gospodarsko rast in zaposlenost. Celotna makroekonomija, akademska in na centralnih bankah, se je ukvarjala s tem problemom. Toda konec 1980. let je v razvitih državah inflacija upadla in naklon Phillipsove krivulje se je iz negativnega spremenil v vodoravnega, se pravi v neobstoječo povezavo med inflacijo in brezposelnostjo.

Mainstream makroekonomija pa se temu ni prilagodila in je še naprej dizajnirana na reševanje problema inflacije. Čeprav so inflacijski jastrebi še kako živi in napovedujejo, da bo ta zdaj zdaj eksplodirala, je problem inflacije danes dejansko postal minoren. In sicer zaradi strukturnih sprememb in počasnega pogrezanja razvitih držav v sekularno stagnacijo in japonski scenarij (demografski prehod, upadanje stopnje rasti produktivnosti). Danes imajo razvite države problem z nezadostnim agregatnim povpraševanjem in v tem depresivnem ozračju se inflacija kot stranski produkt visoke rasti preprosto ne more razviti. Lahko se skromno oglasi na kratek obisk le občasno prek povišanih cen energentov ali uvožene hrane in nato spet izgine.

Na voljo so gromozanske količine likvidnosti, ki so jih sproducirale centralne banke v želji ustvariti več inflacije, ter v obliki ogromnih depozitov poslovnih bank, gospodinjstev in podjetij. Gre za ogromne količine mrtvega kapitala. Česa takšnega v zgodovini še nismo doživeli. Danes je treba dizajnirati programe, ki bodo vsaj del te gromozanske presežne likvidnosti aktivirali – v obliki investicij v energetsko prestrukturiranje, energetsko sanacijo stavb in v infrastrukturo. S tem bomo spet značilneje zagnali gospodarsko rast, in če bomo imeli srečo, se bo s tem spet povrnil delček inflacije.

Nekaj odstavkov iz odličnega teksta Brada DeLonga:

In light of current macroeconomic conditions in the United States, I’ve found myself thinking back to September 2014. That month, the US unemployment rate dropped below 6%, and a broad range of commentators assured us that inflation would soon be on the rise, as predicted by the Phillips curve. The corollary of this argument, of course, was that the US Federal Reserve should begin rapidly normalizing monetary policy, shrinking the monetary base and raising interest rates back into a “normal” range.

Today, US unemployment is 2.5 percentage points lower than it was when we were all assured that the economy had reached the “natural” rate of unemployment. When I was an assistant professor back in the 1990s, the rule of thumb was that unemployment this low would lead to a 1.3 percentage point increase in inflation per year. If this year’s rate of inflation was 2%, next year’s would be 3.3%. And if unemployment remained at the same general level, the inflation rate the following year would be 4.6%, and 5.9% the year after.

But the old rule of thumb no longer applies. The inflation rate in the US will remain at about 2% per year for the next several years, and our monetary-policy choices should reflect that fact.

To be sure, the conventional wisdom among economists back in the 1990s was justified. Between 1957 and 1988, inflation responded predictably to fluctuations in the rate of unemployment. The slope of the simplest possible Phillips curve, when accounting for adaptive expectations, was -0.54: each percentage point decline in unemployment below the estimated natural rate translated into a 0.54 percentage point increase in inflation the following year.

The estimated negative slope of the Phillips curve – that -0.54 figure – between the late 1950s and the late 1980s was drawn largely from six important observations. In 1966, 1973, and 1974, inflation rose in a context of relatively low unemployment. Then, in 1975, 1981, and 1982, inflation fell amid conditions of relatively high unemployment.

Since 1988, however, the slope of the simplest possible Phillips curve has been effectively zero, with an estimated regression coefficient of just -0.03. Even with unemployment far below what economists have presumed was the natural rate, inflation has not accelerated. Likewise, even when unemployment far exceeded what economists presumed was the natural rate, between 2009 and 2014, inflation did not fall, nor did deflation set in.

It is past time that we stopped denying what the data are telling us. Until the structure of the economy and the prevailing economic-policy mix changes, there is little risk that the US will face excessive inflation over the next five years. Monetary policymakers would do well to direct their attention to other problems in the meantime.

Vir: Brad DeLong, Project Syndicate

4 responses

    • Dejstvom. A vidite podivjano inflacijo kot posledico ultra nizke brezposelnosti in zgodovinsko enormne presežne likvidnosti v zadnjih 5 do 8 letih?

  1. Mogoče sem malo tečen, ampak naredil sem primerjavo inflacije in nezaposlenosti (https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/HistoricalInflation.aspx in https://www.thebalance.com/unemployment-rate-by-year-3305506, verjamem, da so podatki verodostojni, nisem jih pa primerjal z drugimi viri) in ugotovil zanimivo primerjavo. Vzorec, ki se riše po krizi 2008 je zelo podoben vzorcu iz 30 let prejšnjega stoletja. Phillipsova krivulja pa drži in je kolerirana od 1942 do krize 2008. Torej sklepam, da je res, da philipsova krivulja trenutno ne drži, kaj pa bodo pokazala naslednja leta je pa vprašanje. Se bo krivulja “normalizirala” z vojno?

  2. Mogoče cene stanovanj in hiš res letijo v nebo, kar DEFINITIVNO NI rezultat ekspanzivne monetarne politike ECBja, ampak še dobro da imamo neomarksistične razsvetljence ki znajo nespametnim mladim kot sem jaz obrazložit, da INFLACIJE NI, ker bureku na Baverskem dvoru že 10 let ni zrasla cena.

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