Poroka med psihologijo in modeli z multiplimi ravnotežji za boljšo ponazoritev realnega sveta

Roger Farmer že desetletja dela na modelih, ki naj bi bolje ponazarjali realni ekonomski svet. Za razliko od nobelovca Roberta Lucasa, ki je sforsiral mikrofundiran model z racionalnimi pričakovanji posameznikov, ki zaradi tega ne dopušča notranjih kriz in kjer se gospodarstvo po od zunaj povzročenem šoku vedno hitro vrne nazaj v splošno in edino možno) ravnotežje, pa Farmer (podobno kot Keynes) trdi, da je možno veliko ravnotežij v gospodarstvu, od katerih so nekatera bolj in druga manj slaba. Drugače rečeno, za razliko od Lucasa, kjer se gospodarstvo vedno povrne nazaj v splošno ravnotežje s polno zaposlenostjo, se lahko v Farmerjevih modelih gospodarstvo ustali ob različnih stopnjah brezposelnosti. Katero od možnih številnih ravnotežij se bo v določeni situaciji uveljavilo, pa je odvisno od psihologije – odvisno je od prevladujočih prepričanj v tistem trenutku. Če so posamezniki bolj negativno razpoloženi, se bo uveljavilo ravnotežje z visoko stopnjo brezposelnosti in to “slabo ravnotežje” lahko traja dolgo časa.

Tako kot v realnem svetu. Denimo v Sloveniji po letu 2008, kjer je zaradi persistentne negotovosti in negativnih sentimentov med potrošniki in menedžerji ter napačne makroekonomske politike vlade slabo ravnotežje trajalo kar 5 let in kjer je tudi 9 let kasneje brezposelnost še vedno za polovico višja kot pred začetkom krize.

No, Farmer je v začetku julija na Bank of England soorganiziral konferenco “Applications of Behavioural Economics and Multiple Equilibrium Models to Macroeconomic Policy“, ki se je ukvarjala natanko s tem, kako bolj realistično modelirati gospodarstvo z združitvijo psihologije (vedenjske ekonomike) in sveta z možnimi multiplimi ravnotežji.

For more than thirty years, I have advanced a research agenda which  promotes the idea that psychology, aka beliefs, matters for economics. Beliefs are central to determining economic outcomes and should be treated as a new fundamental. My own research and the research of my graduate students, Konstantin Platonov and Giovanni Nicolò, also featured at the conference, studies models of multiple equilibria. But these models are incomplete. When an economic model has multiple possible outcomes, the social scientist who constructed the model has not finished her job. She must explain what feature of the social world selects which of the many possible equilibrium outcomes will prevail. That’s where psychology enters the picture.  Economists talk of animal spirits as a factor that helps to determine the unemployment rate and the inflation rate in the real world. Psychology tells us where animal spirits come from and how they are determined.

There is increasing interest in the way that stories influence the real economy. This was the topic of Robert Shiller’s 2017 Presidential address to the American Economic Association. Stories have no role to play in conventional economic models because Robert Lucas, writing in 1972, persuaded the profession that the expectations of market participants are determined by economic fundamentals. That idea makes sense in economic models where there is a unique equilibrium. It makes little or no sense in models like the ones I promoted in my 1993 book, the Macroeconomics of Self-Fulfilling Prophecies,  where there are multiple equilibria. The papers presented at the Bank of England conference are about the tensions between these two sets of ideas.

Vir: Roger Farmer

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