Christian Odendahl v twitterstormu na podlagi svojega članka razloži, v kolikšni meri so reforme nemškega trga dela in v kolikšni meri drugi dejavniki prispeval k nemški hitri rasti po 2004 ter seveda ali je ta “čudež” mogoče ponoviti z enakimi reformami trga dela drugje.
1/15 What if any lessons should rest of Europe draw from
#Germany‘s ‘Hartz’ labour market reforms? Quick tweetstorm of my latest CER piece.
2/15 First lesson: timing is everything.
#Germany‘s reforms were phenomenally timed, for four reasons. Emerging economies entered a boom;
3/15 decline in construction sector in
#Germany had just bottomed out; German businesses had finished a deep restructuring to be fit for
5/15 Not every country that embarks on similar reforms like
#Germany will have these factors playing in its favour.
6/15 Second lesson: the right diagnosis is crucial.
#Germany did have problems with its labour market, so part of diagnosis was correct.
7/15 But “labour market only” diagnosis missed Germany’s macroeconomic situation, which could have backfired (but didn’t, see lessons 1).
8/15 Third, there are smarter ways to reform labour market in a slump: cut taxes on wages & invest in training first, deregulate second.
9/15 Fourth, tackle the social hardship of reforms right from the start (eg min wage), not just to build political support.
10/15 Fifth, more flexible labour markets do little if anything to boost
#productivity – which is what ultimately matters for living stds.
#Germany failed to complement its labour market reforms with a productivity agenda for those affected most by reforms. To this day.
12/15 Sixth, unions & works councils that were willing to accommodate themselves to change were crucial for GER adaptation to globalisation.
15/15 If you’re interested in the full read “The Hartz Myth — A closer look at Germany’s labour market reforms“