Povratek 80-ih: Trump kot novi Reagan

Ni kaj dodati, Trump uporablja enako retoriko kot Reagan: “Make America great again“, enako veliko znižanje davkov, enaka obljuba povečanja javnih izdatkov in enaka filozofija “trickle-down učinkov na srednji sloj in revne. Evforija med bogatimi je podobna: borza nori k novim rekordom, najdražje in najbolj luksuzne nepremičnine se prodajajo za med, prestižne umetnine se prodajajo po rekordnih cenah.

Tudi učinki in glavobol bodo po Trumpu bržkone na las podobni kot po Reaganu: rekordna luknja v proračunu in rekordni prepad med bogatimi in revnimi. Trump bo svoje, prvenstveno bele volilce, razočarane z dosedanjimi politikami, nategnil enako kot Reagan. Čez štiri leta bodo še bolj revni in še težje bodo videli čez rob mize bogatih. Tako je, ko ljudje glasujejo s čustvi, namesto z možgani. Toda, kot sledi iz sosednjega komentarja, razočarala sta jih že konzervativna in liberalna elita. Kaj več lahko še izgubijo s Trumpom?

Still, Mr. Trump remains a creature of the decade that made him famous. Take his tax plan. He has proposed cutting the top rate to 33 percent from 39.6 percent, cutting the corporate rate to 15 percent from 35 percent, trimming the capital gains tax and eliminating the estate tax. These would be the largest tax cuts for the wealthy since the Reagan reductions of 1986.

According to the Tax Policy Center, the after-tax incomes of middle-class and lower-income taxpayers would grow less than 2 percent under the Trump plan. The incomes of the top 1 percent of earners, by contrast, would soar about 14 percent.

Put another way, nearly half of Mr. Trump’s tax cuts would go to the top 1 percent — recalling Reagan’s trickle-down theory: Money at the top will flow down to those at the bottom.

“The question is: In this economy, will that actually happen?” said Roberton Williams, a fellow at the Tax Policy Center.

Mr. Trump, of course, has invited the Reagan comparisons, borrowing Reagan’s 1980 slogan “Let’s make America great again.” And like Reagan, his combination of tax cuts for the wealthy and increased spending by government could lead to higher deficits.

Yet for now, Mr. Trump’s emphasis on tax cuts and deregulation is ushering in an ’80s-like euphoria among the rich. Since the election, stocks have reached record highs. Strong art sales this month at Sotheby’s, Christie’s and Phillips brought in a total of more than $1 billion. Christie’s sold a de Kooning for $66.3 million (well over its estimate of $40 million) and a favorite of ’80s collectors, a Monet, for $81.4 million.

High-end real estate, which was in a slump, is also poised for growth now that a real estate developer will be in the White House.

Sales of luxury goods are rising, after a slowdown in China and less conspicuous consumption put a damper on them last year. An executive with Net-a-Porter, the high-end fashion company, cited Mr. Trump’s wife in the 1980s — Ivana — as a “key inspiration” for some of the fall fashion lines, which emphasize “hard-edged, power-shoulder jackets,” bouffant hair and bright lipstick.

Of course, times have changed since Gordon Gekko said that “greed, for lack of a better word, is good.” In a post-Thomas Piketty world where even traditional Republicans warn about the wealth gap and the effects of globalization and technology, Mr. Trump’s ’80s blueprint may prove as outdated as shoulder pads and the Cold War. His rewards for those at the top are likely to make inequality even wider and could draw criticism from the populist voters who helped elect him.

Vir: Robert Frank, New York Times

One response

  1. “Trump bo svoje, prvenstveno bele volilce, razočarane z dosedanjimi politikami, nategnil enako kot Reagan. Čez štiri leta bodo še bolj revni in še težje bodo videli čez rob mize bogatih.”

    Ali bi bilo kaj drugače v primeru Clintonove? Ali so Obama, Bush Jr, Clinton, Bush naredili kaj drugače? Statistika kaže, da ne. Ravno včeraj sem pisal o tem. https://trgovanje.eu/2016/11/26/zakaj-se-je-zgodil-brexit-zakaj-je-bil-trump-izvoljen-in-zakaj-bi-italijani-lahko-zavrnili-referendum/

    In tudi to bi dodal. Trump ne bo kriv za morebitno krizo/recesijo v 2017, če se bo le-ta zgodila. Kot sem zapisal tukaj https://trgovanje.eu/2016/11/05/ameriske-volitve-trg-napoveduje-zmago-trumpa/ :
    “V zadnjih 100 letih smo do sedaj še vedno padli v recesijo v obdobju 12 mesecev po ameriških predsedniških volitvah, ko se je poslovil predsednik z dvojim mandatom. Torej, Trump ali Clintonova? Statistika pravi, da je za finančne trge in gospodarstvo vseeno kdo bo postal naslednji predsednik, čeprav nas bi nekateri radi prepričali v nasprotno.”

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