Nemški plan po Brexitu: Še več discipliniranja

Po pričakovanju ima nemško finančno ministrstvo plan nacionalnih prioritet po Brexitu. Handelsblatt razkriva 8-stranski dokument, ki predvideva predvsem troje. Prvič, hitra pogajanja z V. Britanijo glede njenega pridružitvenega statusa, seveda predvsem na trgovinskem področju, kajti nemška industrija potrebuje skoraj 60-milijonski britanski trg. Vendar Britanija ne bi smela v pogajanjih dobiti preveč, ker bi to utegnilo dati “napačne spodbude” ostalim potencialnim “izstopnikom” (Francija, Avstrija, Finska, Nizozemska, Madžarska). Drugič,treba je preprečiti, da bi ostale članice sedanjo povečano negotovost izkoristile za pritisk k večji delitvi rizikov (uvedba evro obveznic). In tretjič, poglobitev integracije je za Nemčijo smiselna le v primeru spremembe EU pogodb, pri čemer bi Evropska komisija morala dobiti pravico veta na nacionalne proračune. Toda v sedanji situaciji bo težko najti konsenz za poglobitev integracije.

Dokument torej ne prinaša nič radikalno novega – pač pa le zaščito nemških interesov, discipliniranje preostalih članic s trdimi pogoji Britaniji in preprečitev rahljanja fiskalne discipline kot posledice povečane politične nestabilnosti.

Bo to dovolj za “spametovanje” (discipliniranje) ostalih članic, da ne rinejo po poti Britanije? Tja, drastično discipliniranje Grčije lani je imelo učinkovit zastraševalni učinek. Sedanja britanska kaotična reakcija na ponesrečen referendum in trd pogajalski zid z EU nakazujeta v podobno smer – “projekt strah” je lahko zelo učinkovit. Razen, kadar je stopnja discipliniranja previsoka in pride do upora prav zaradi drastičnosti disciplinskih ukrepov. Takrat, tako kot v kaznilnicah, faktor strahu zbledi.

To deter other European countries from leaving the bloc, the European Union “should refrain from setting wrong incentives for other member states when renegotiating relations,” said the paper.

Other countries that might want to leave the European Union could be France, Austria, Finland, the Netherlands and Hungary, according to the paper. “The extent of the knock-on effect will depend on the handling of the United Kingdom,” it said.

Mr. Schäuble and his boss, Chancellor Angela Merkel, are also worried about another issue, according to the document. Both fear that the European Commision, the region’s executive body, France and Italy could exploit the current uncertainty to push for more risk-sharing — a reference to pooling liabilities in tackling the euro debt crisis, for example. Germany should “proactively” steer against such a development, the paper said.

Mr. Schäuble’s staff are worried about an increased level of shared liabilities in the euro zone, for instance an independent budget for the 19-nation single currency region or a European deposit guarantee scheme.

These are sensitive topics in the northern European countries, which are net contributors to European Union and have usually resisted greater risk-sharing in the euro zone or European Union. More risk-pooling would not be the right answer following the Brexit vote, according to the document. It could strengthen the hands of other euroskeptic movements in E.U. countries.

Berlin is only willing to accept a deeper level of integration in the European Union when E.U. treaties are changed, for instance to strengthen the control of budget and economic policies. One of the proposals in Mr. Schäuble’s paper is to give the European Union the power to block a nation’s budget plan if it does not meet the region’s deficit rules.

The finance department, however, does not expect that there will be a consensus for more integration.

Vir: Handelsblatt

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