Japonska deflacija se poglablja: Tudi donosi obveznic pod ničlo

Očitno se začenja naslednja faze deflacijske depresije na Japonskem. Potem ko japonski centralni banki zadnjih 25 let ni uspelo zagotoviti dovolj inflacije, se je poslužila ukrepa negativnih obrestnih mer (poslovne banke plačujejo “ležarino” za svoje depozite pri centralni banki). Namen ukrepa je, da bi poslovne banke začele posojati denar gospodarstvu, namesto da plačujejo ležarino. Toda ukrep je, kot piše New York Times, povzročil zgolj to, da so obrestnim meram v negativni teritorij sledili tudi donosi japonskih državnih obveznic. Drugače rečeno, zdaj ne samo, da poslovne banke plačujejo centralni banki, da imajo lahko svoj denar na varnem pri njej, pač pa tudi investitorji plačujejo japonski vladi, da imajo lahko svoj denar spravljen v njenih obveznicah.

Pri vsem tem je zanimivo predvsem to, da se tudi po 25 letih izkušenj z deflacijo ter izkušnjah drugih držav s prakso negativnih obrestnih mer (Švica in Švedska) japonski vladajoči politiki in centralni bankirji niso naučili dovolj osnov ekonomije. Torej da jim šraufanje obrestnih mer v času likvidnostne pasti prav nič ne more pomagati k spodbujanju naložb in gospodarske rasti ter s tem inflacije. Še vedno ne razumejo, da kadar gospodinjstva nočejo trošiti, podjetja ne bodo investirala ne glede na višino obrestne mere in da je edini izhod iz deflacijske depresije v helikopterskem denarju. Torej, da denar razdelijo gospodinjstvom, namesto da ga mečejo za poslovnimi bankami in finančnimi investitorji.

Given Japan’s outsize public debt, holding an i.o.u. from its government might seem like a risky proposition that would require the promise of a substantial reward.

But this week, as global economic fears drove money into safer assets, investors in Japanese debt began essentially performing that service for free.

On Tuesday, the yield on Japanese 10-year bonds, the benchmark of government borrowing, dropped to zero for the first time. They quickly fell into negative territory, meaning some investors were buying bonds despite knowing that if they held them until maturity, they would come away with less money than they paid.

The Bank of Japan’s new policy is intended to stimulate the economy, which narrowly avoided falling into recession last quarter. By making it unprofitable for banks to hold cash, Mr. Kuroda hopes to encourage them to lend more freely and get businesses and households to spend. He also wants to give a lift to consumer prices, which have been sagging after a welcome but short-lived bout of inflation.

In other countries that have introduced negative interest rates, like Sweden and Switzerland, government bond yields have also been pushed below zero.

Vir: New York Times

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