Konec “novega normalnega”. Začetek “nenormalnega”?

Ne bi se mogel strinjati bolj. Monetarna politika je nemočna pri spodbujanju okrevanja iz sedanje depresije, napihuje zgolj finančne in nepremičninske balone ter ustvarja nevzdržno velika tveganja. Nujna je močnejša uporaba fiskalnih in socialnih politik za spodbujanje rasti in socialne kohezije. Sicer nam bo svet eksplodiral v obraz. Mohamed A. El-Erian v Project Syndicate:

In the early days of 2009, the “new normal” was on virtually no one’s radar. […] But some observers already saw signs that this shock would prove more consequential, with the advanced economies finding themselves locked into a frustrating and unusual long-term low-growth trajectory. In May 2009, my PIMCO colleagues and I went public with this hypothesis, calling it the “new normal.”

The concept received a rather frosty reception in academic and policy circles – an understandable response, given strong conditioning to think and act cyclically. Few were ready to admit that the advanced economies had bet the farm on the wrong growth model, much less that they should look to the emerging economies for insight into structural impediments to growth, including debt overhangs and excessive inequalities.

But the economy was not bouncing back. On the contrary, not only did slow growth and high unemployment persist for years, but the inequality trifecta (income, wealth, and opportunity) worsened as well. The consequences extended beyond economics and finance, straining regional political arrangements, amplifying national political dysfunction, and fueling the rise of anti-establishment parties and movements.

Today, it is no longer unusual to suggest that the West could linger in a low-level growth equilibrium for an unusually prolonged period. Yet, as I explain in my new book The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse, growing internal tensions and contradictions, together with over-reliance on monetary policy, are destabilizing that equilibrium.

Indeed, with financial bubbles growing, the nature of financial risk morphing, inequality worsening, and non-traditional – and in some cases extreme – political forces continuing to gain traction, the calming influence of unconventional monetary policies is being stretched to its limits. The prospect that such policies will be able to keep the economic engines humming, even at low levels, looks increasingly dim. Instead, the world economy seems to be headed for another crossroads, which I expect it to reach within the next three years.

This may not be a bad thing. If policymakers implement a more comprehensive response, they can put their economies on a more stable and prosperous path – one of high inclusive growth, declining inequality, and genuine financial stability. Such a policy response would have to include pro-growth structural reforms (such as higher infrastructure investment, a tax overhaul, and labor retooling), more responsive fiscal policy, relief for pockets of excessive indebtedness, and improved global coordination. This, together with technological innovations and the deployment of sidelined corporate cash, would unleash productive capacity, producing faster and more inclusive growth, while validating asset prices, which are now artificially elevated.

Vir: Mohamed A. El-Erian (Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz), Project Syndicate

%d bloggers like this: