Nemška ideologija v paralelnem vesolju

Wolfgang Münchau je v Financial Timesu nemško ekonomsko ideologijo lepo razložil s tem, da v doktrini ordoliberalizma ni prostora za ekonomsko politiko, pač pa zgolj za spoštovanje pravil. Nemški ekonomisti, vzgojeni v duhu ordoliberalizma, se delijo na tiste, ki niso prebrali Keynesa, in na tiste, ki so ga sicer prebrali, vendar ne tudi razumeli. V njihovi ekonomski filozofiji ni prostora za izjemne krize, ki se zgodijo enkrat ali dvakrat na stoletje. Potrebna sta zgolj disciplina in red, pa bo vse v redu.

Takšna svojevrstna ideologija ne bi bila problem, če bi Nemčija obstajala v dejanskem vzporednem vesolju, s svojo lastno valuto. Problem pa je, kadar svojo freaky ideologijo uveljavlja v svetu, v katerem si delimo skupno valuto in smo odvisni od dejanj drugih. V svetu, kjer nemški trgovinski presežek deluje enako destabilizirajoče kot fiskalni deficit Francije.

A good example of orthodox dogma was last week’s annual report of the Council of Economic Experts, an official body that advises the government. They did not criticise a lack of investment, excessive current account surpluses or overzealous fiscal rectitude. Instead they criticised the minimum wage and some minor relaxation to the retirement age. In other words: they want the government of Angela Merkel, chancellor, to be even tougher.

My third criticism is more fundamental. It is far from clear whether ordoliberal dogma translates from a relatively small open economy like Germany to a large closed one like the eurozone. The ordoliberal world view is asymmetric. Current account surpluses are considered more acceptable than deficits. Since the rules are based on national law, ordoliberals do not care about their impact on the rest of the world. When they adopted the euro, the rest of the world suddenly did start to matter.

The ordoliberal doctrine may even have worked well for Germany, though I suspect that the country’s economic success is due mostly to technology, high skills and the presence of some excellent companies, rather than to economic policy. Through its dominance of the euro system, Germany is exporting ordoliberal ideology to the rest of the single currency bloc. It is hard to think of a doctrine that is more ill suited to a monetary union with such diverse legal traditions, political system and economic conditions than this one. And it is equally hard to see Germany ever giving up on this. As a result the economic costs of crisis resolution will be extremely large.

Vir: Wolfgang Münchau, Financial Times

Ker Nemčija od svoje ideologije ne bo odstopila, se zadeva ne more dobro končati. Šla bo najmanj tako daleč, kot opozarja Paul Krugman, dokler v eni ali dveh velikih državah ne bodo na oblast prišli nacionalisti. Francija in Italija sta prvi kandidatki. Toda to pomeni ne samo konec evra, pač pa zelo verjetno tudi konec EU.

How does this end? We have to keep pounding on the issues, and I’m reasonably sure that Draghi and co get it. But with the largest player on the European scene living in a fantasy world, the best guess has to be that nothing much is done until there is complete political crisis, with anti-European nationalists taking over one or more major nations.

Vir. Paul Krugman, New York Times

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