Ponovno tisti potapljajoč občutek

Tako današnji The Economist komentira evropsko sesedanje v tretjo recesijo in (najbrž ignoriran) Draghijev predlog o nujni pomoči fiskalne politike, da se EU izogne depresiji. Sama slika na naslovnici pove vse o resnosti “skupnega reševanja” iz krize. The Economist podobno kot jaz pravi, da če evro ne prinaša nič razen stagnacije, brezposelnosti in deflacije, bodo ljudje preprosto glasovali za izstop iz evra.

Mr Montebourg’s argument is all the more seductive because he is right about Europe’s third problem: excessive austerity, largely forced on the continent by Germany. Mr Draghi has just implicitly conceded that fiscal and monetary policy in the euro zone is too tight at the annual economics jamboree in Jackson Hole. He hinted that he was in favour of quantitative easing, which both America and Britain have used, and he called for fiscal policy to do more to encourage growth—a message plainly aimed at Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel. She is the leader who insists most firmly on sticking to the euro zone’s rules on fiscal discipline, just as it is the German Bundesbank that is most strongly against quantitative easing.

So it will be hard. But without a new push from the continent’s leaders, growth will not revive and deflation could take hold. Japan suffered a decade of lost growth in the 1990s, and is still struggling. But, unlike Japan, Europe is not a single cohesive country. If the currency union brings nothing but stagnation, joblessness and deflation, then some people will eventually vote to leave the euro. Thanks to Mr Draghi’s promise to put a floor under government debt, the market risk that financial pressures could trigger a break-up has receded. But the political risk that one or more countries decide to storm out of the single currency is rising all the time. The euro crisis has not gone away; it is just waiting over the horizon.

Vir: The Economist

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